What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 309 matches (Jul 2015 – Sep 2026), Raków Częstochowa drew 70 where the draw model expected 79.3 from those particular fixtures — about 9 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 80.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 10 Apr 2019 → 04 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 10 Jun 2020 → 18 Sep 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 20 Oct 2025 → 14 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 24 May 2025 → 15 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 11 Aug 2023 → 22 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 26 Jul 2026 → 19 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 19 Apr 2024 → 03 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 06 Oct 2022 → 12 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 22 Nov 2021 → 12 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 19 Apr 2026 → 08 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ekstraklasa | 246 | 54 | 22.0% | 15 | 15 |
| Polish Cup | 82 | 21 | 25.6% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 5 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 10 | 29.4% | 9 |
| 2025 | 48 | 7 | 14.6% | 12 |
| 2024 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2023 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 11 |
| 2022 | 37 | 6 | 16.2% | 9 |
| 2021 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 2020 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 14 |
| 2019 | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | 17 |
| 2018 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2013 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2004 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2000 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1999 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1998 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1997 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1996 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1992 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1987 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1986 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, 02 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Oct 09:30 |
Raków Częstochowa
|
vs | Polonia Bytom | – / – / – | 20.8% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.