Port Vale
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 581 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Port Vale drew 150 where the draw model expected 162.4 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 155.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 30 Oct 2004 → 05 Mar 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 30 Aug 2008 → 22 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 03 Oct 2020 → 05 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 13 Apr 2002 → 28 Sep 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 05 Dec 1998 → 09 Mar 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 26 Mar 2022 → 10 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 10 Feb 2015 → 06 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 04 Nov 2006 → 30 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 05 Aug 2006 → 23 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 04 Apr 1994 → 20 Aug 1994 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 736 | 162 | 22.0% | 4 | 20 |
| League Two | 504 | 143 | 28.4% | 4 | 14 |
| FA Cup | 291 | 68 | 23.4% | 2 | 6 |
| Championship | 276 | 77 | 27.9% | 3 | 13 |
| League Cup | 138 | 27 | 19.6% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 7 |
| 2025 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2024 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 8 |
| 2023 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2022 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 8 |
| 2020 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 14 |
| 2019 | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2018 | 48 | 17 | 35.4% | 9 |
| 2017 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 12 |
| 2014 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 7 |
| 2013 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 11 |
| 2012 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2011 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 6 |
| 2010 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 11 |
| 2009 | 51 | 20 | 39.2% | 6 |
| 2008 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% | 15 |
| 2007 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 11 |
| 2006 | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 12 |
| 2005 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 11 |
| 2004 | 50 | 6 | 12.0% | 11 |
| 2003 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2002 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 14 |
| 2001 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2000 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 8 |
| 1999 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 9 |
| 1998 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 1997 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 1996 | 60 | 22 | 36.7% | 6 |
| 1995 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 7 |
| 1994 | 57 | 13 | 22.8% | 12 |
| 1993 | 27 | 8 | 29.6% | 9 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1990 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1985 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1982 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1978 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1977 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1968 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1963 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1961 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1954 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1950 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1936 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1887 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1886 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1885 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 14:00 |
Port Vale
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 14:00 |
Port Vale
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 31.5% |
|
| Tue, 20 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 20 Oct 19:00 |
Gillingham
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 31.6% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 14:00 |
York City
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 12:30 |
Port Vale
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.