What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 30 Oct 2004 → 05 Mar 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 30 Aug 2008 → 22 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 03 Oct 2020 → 05 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 13 Apr 2002 → 28 Sep 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 05 Dec 1998 → 09 Mar 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 26 Mar 2022 → 10 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 12 | 10 Feb 2015 → 06 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 04 Nov 2006 → 30 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 05 Aug 2006 → 23 Sep 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 04 Apr 1994 → 20 Aug 1994 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 736 | 162 | 22.0% | 4 | 20 |
| League Two | 509 | 144 | 28.3% | 2 | 14 |
| FA Cup | 291 | 68 | 23.4% | 2 | 6 |
| Championship | 276 | 77 | 27.9% | 3 | 13 |
| League Cup | 138 | 27 | 19.6% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 7 |
| 2025 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2024 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 8 |
| 2023 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2022 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 8 |
| 2020 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 14 |
| 2019 | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2018 | 48 | 17 | 35.4% | 9 |
| 2017 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2015 | 53 | 12 | 22.6% | 12 |
| 2014 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 7 |
| 2013 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 11 |
| 2012 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2011 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 6 |
| 2010 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 11 |
| 2009 | 51 | 20 | 39.2% | 6 |
| 2008 | 49 | 8 | 16.3% | 15 |
| 2007 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 11 |
| 2006 | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 12 |
| 2005 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 11 |
| 2004 | 50 | 6 | 12.0% | 11 |
| 2003 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2002 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 14 |
| 2001 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2000 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 8 |
| 1999 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 9 |
| 1998 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 1997 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 8 |
| 1996 | 60 | 22 | 36.7% | 6 |
| 1995 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 7 |
| 1994 | 57 | 13 | 22.8% | 12 |
| 1993 | 27 | 8 | 29.6% | 9 |
| 1992 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1991 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1990 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1985 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1982 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 3 |
| 1980 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1978 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1977 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1975 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1974 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1973 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1968 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1963 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1961 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1960 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1959 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1954 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1951 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1950 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1938 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1936 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1926 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1887 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1886 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1885 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
Over 586 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Port Vale drew 151 where the draw model expected 163.8 from those particular fixtures — about 13 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 156.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.