What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 148 matches (Nov 1950 – Sep 2025), Polonia Warszawa drew 32 where the draw model expected 35.8 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 34.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 08 Mar 2000 → 05 Aug 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 28 Sep 2012 → 10 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 15 Jul 2009 → 07 Oct 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 27 Sep 2005 → 30 Nov 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 22 Nov 2000 → 16 May 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 01 Mar 2013 → 08 Apr 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 15 Jul 2002 → 11 Sep 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 15 Jul 2001 → 10 Oct 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 15 Jul 1998 → 14 Oct 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 12 Aug 2012 → 31 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polish Cup | 94 | 22 | 23.4% | 0 | 6 |
| Ekstraklasa | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 20 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2024 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2023 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2013 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2012 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2011 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 7 |
| 2008 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2007 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2006 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2005 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 2004 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2003 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2002 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2001 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 5 |
| 2000 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 1999 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1998 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1997 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1996 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1995 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1994 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1993 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1990 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1984 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1983 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1950 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 10:30 |
Jagiellonia Białystok
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% | ITL · Club Friendlies |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.