What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 13 Mar 2025 → 21 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 19 Sep 2023 → 19 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 03 Feb 2024 → 16 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 27 Nov 2022 → 21 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 25 Oct 2020 → 13 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 22 Dec 2024 → 15 Feb 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 17 Feb 2021 → 28 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 03 Dec 2023 → 20 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 10 Apr 2022 → 17 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 6 | 07 Feb 2026 → 03 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 244 | 61 | 25.0% | 1 | 13 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
| 2025 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 13 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2022 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2021 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2020 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 9 |
| 2019 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
Over 244 matches (Aug 2019 – Apr 2026), Pergolettese drew 61 where the draw model expected 76.1 from those particular fixtures — about 15 fewer, or 2.1 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 74.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.