What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 31 Oct 2020 → 28 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 16 Mar 2019 → 15 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 21 Feb 2026 → 03 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 10 Feb 2017 → 08 Apr 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 26 Oct 2003 → 13 Feb 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 13 Aug 2016 → 29 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 20 Apr 2013 → 17 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 03 Apr 2012 → 05 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 18 Feb 2024 → 20 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 02 Mar 2008 → 27 Apr 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3. Liga | 456 | 125 | 27.4% | 1 | 12 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 282 | 77 | 27.3% | 3 | 18 |
| DFB-Pokal | 23 | 5 | 21.7% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 12 |
| 2025 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 7 |
| 2024 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 9 |
| 2023 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2022 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 5 |
| 2021 | 43 | 9 | 20.9% | 10 |
| 2020 | 31 | 12 | 38.7% | 9 |
| 2019 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 17 |
| 2018 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2017 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2016 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 10 |
| 2015 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 6 |
| 2013 | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 10 |
| 2012 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 10 |
| 2011 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 5 |
| 2010 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2009 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2008 | 35 | 12 | 34.3% | 9 |
| 2007 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 6 |
| 2006 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2004 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 7 |
| 2003 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2001 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 8 |
| 2000 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 5 |
Over 410 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), VfL Osnabrück drew 115 where the draw model expected 112.4 from those particular fixtures — about 3 more, or 0.3 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 111.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.