What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 15 Oct 2016 → 14 Feb 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 05 Feb 2000 → 06 May 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 10 Jan 2004 → 13 Mar 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 08 Mar 2026 → 11 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 19 Feb 2007 → 21 Apr 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 03 Nov 2001 → 29 Dec 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 16 Sep 2020 → 31 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 28 Jan 2020 → 07 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 07 Nov 2015 → 02 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 18 Apr 2015 → 25 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 870 | 238 | 27.4% | 1 | 17 |
| League One | 644 | 171 | 26.6% | 11 | 20 |
| FA Cup | 268 | 65 | 24.3% | 1 | 4 |
| League Cup | 162 | 33 | 20.4% | 1 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 2 | 2 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 12 |
| 2025 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 8 |
| 2024 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 8 |
| 2023 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2022 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 8 |
| 2021 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 6 |
| 2020 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 10 |
| 2019 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 8 |
| 2018 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 7 |
| 2017 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 56 | 17 | 30.4% | 14 |
| 2015 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 10 |
| 2014 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 8 |
| 2013 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2012 | 50 | 15 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 52 | 18 | 34.6% | 8 |
| 2010 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2009 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 10 |
| 2008 | 51 | 19 | 37.3% | 5 |
| 2007 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 11 |
| 2006 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2005 | 53 | 17 | 32.1% | 8 |
| 2004 | 52 | 11 | 21.2% | 14 |
| 2003 | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2002 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2001 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 2000 | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | 17 |
| 1999 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 1998 | 53 | 19 | 35.9% | 5 |
| 1997 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1996 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 10 |
| 1995 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 5 |
| 1994 | 47 | 15 | 31.9% | 7 |
| 1993 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 5 |
| 1992 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1991 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 3 |
| 1989 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1986 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1982 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1980 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1979 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1977 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1976 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1974 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 2 |
| 1969 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1966 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1965 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1952 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1951 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1947 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1945 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1922 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1921 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1910 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1902 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 580 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Northampton Town drew 147 where the draw model expected 159.9 from those particular fixtures — about 13 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 155.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.