What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 28 Sep 2013 → 13 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 12 | 06 Jun 2012 → 05 Aug 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 09 Sep 2012 → 17 Oct 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 05 Jun 2013 → 07 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 14 Aug 2013 → 05 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 14 Feb 2018 → 18 Apr 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 19 Feb 2025 → 20 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 01 Mar 2023 → 25 Apr 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 3 | 02 Apr 2015 → 30 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 11 Sep 2013 → 19 Sep 2013 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 76 | 12 | 15.8% | 15 | 15 |
| Copa do Brasil | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 4 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2023 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2018 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2015 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2014 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2013 | 40 | 6 | 15.0% | 15 |
| 2012 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 12 |
Over 109 matches (May 2012 – May 2025), Náutico drew 20 where the draw model expected 29.9 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 2.1 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 29.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.