What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 09 Feb 2021 → 01 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 08 Mar 2008 → 28 Sep 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 19 Apr 2004 → 24 Oct 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 01 Jun 2003 → 30 Nov 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 28 Nov 2004 → 18 Feb 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 16 Aug 2026 → 01 Nov 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 15 Mar 2026 → 16 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 26 Feb 2016 → 01 May 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 25 Aug 2006 → 21 Oct 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 23 Oct 2005 → 22 Dec 2005 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 624 | 150 | 24.0% | 9 | 13 |
| UEFA Europa League | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 2 | 3 |
| Taça de Portugal | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 10 |
| 2025 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 8 |
| 2024 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2023 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 13 |
| 2020 | 12 | 5 | 41.7% | 5 |
| 2019 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 8 |
| 2018 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2017 | 19 | 7 | 36.8% | 6 |
| 2016 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2015 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2014 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 5 |
| 2013 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 8 |
| 2012 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 8 |
| 2011 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2010 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2009 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2008 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 13 |
| 2007 | 30 | 8 | 26.7% | 6 |
| 2006 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 9 |
| 2004 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 13 |
| 2003 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 13 |
| 2002 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 5 |
Over 256 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), CD Nacional drew 60 where the draw model expected 63.0 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 64.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.