Modena
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 327 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Modena drew 90 where the draw model expected 101.5 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 101.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 19 Sep 2021 → 30 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 26 May 2002 → 01 Dec 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 23 Apr 2022 → 15 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 07 Nov 2015 → 16 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 10 | 18 Apr 2026 → 06 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 08 Oct 2006 → 09 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 14 May 2011 → 10 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 08 Mar 2025 → 04 May 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 05 Dec 2020 → 30 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 13 Feb 2016 → 26 Mar 2016 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 699 | 236 | 33.8% | 1 | 11 |
| Serie C | 92 | 19 | 20.7% | 1 | 19 |
| Serie A | 68 | 23 | 33.8% | 5 | 12 |
| Coppa Italia | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28 | 6 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2025 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2024 | 40 | 21 | 52.5% | 3 |
| 2023 | 39 | 12 | 30.8% | 6 |
| 2022 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 17 |
| 2020 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 6 |
| 2019 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2016 | 23 | 6 | 26.1% | 8 |
| 2015 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2014 | 45 | 20 | 44.4% | 5 |
| 2013 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2012 | 46 | 15 | 32.6% | 6 |
| 2011 | 45 | 18 | 40.0% | 9 |
| 2010 | 45 | 17 | 37.8% | 5 |
| 2009 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 8 |
| 2008 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 2007 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 5 |
| 2006 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 10 |
| 2005 | 45 | 22 | 48.9% | 3 |
| 2004 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 2003 | 33 | 14 | 42.4% | 5 |
| 2002 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 14 |
| 2001 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 6 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 17:30 |
Modena
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 33.6% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 13:00 |
Carrarese Calcio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 33.6% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 13:00 |
Modena
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Tue, 27 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 27 Oct 19:00 |
LR Vicenza
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 14:00 |
Modena
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.8% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 14:00 |
Virtus Entella
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 33.6% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.