AC Milan
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 607 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), AC Milan drew 152 where the draw model expected 145.1 from those particular fixtures — about 7 more, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 156.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 19 Mar 1995 → 01 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 04 Mar 2008 → 20 Sep 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 21 May 2017 → 20 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 25 Apr 2015 → 04 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 23 Oct 2005 → 22 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 16 Jan 2005 → 06 Apr 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 28 Apr 1996 → 30 Oct 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 10 Sep 2022 → 05 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 01 Oct 2002 → 26 Nov 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 16 Sep 1992 → 05 Sep 1993 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 1215 | 324 | 26.7% | 1 | 21 |
| UEFA Champions League | 280 | 73 | 26.1% | 0 | 14 |
| UEFA Europa League | 105 | 22 | 21.0% | 1 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 64 | 19 | 29.7% | 5 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 2 | 7 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 30 | 11 | 36.7% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 0 | 4 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Supercoppa Italiana | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 1 | 2 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 8 |
| 2025 | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | 12 |
| 2024 | 57 | 14 | 24.6% | 11 |
| 2023 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 9 |
| 2022 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 13 |
| 2021 | 61 | 14 | 23.0% | 9 |
| 2020 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2019 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 7 |
| 2018 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 2017 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 18 |
| 2016 | 43 | 13 | 30.2% | 6 |
| 2015 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 17 |
| 2014 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 12 |
| 2013 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 5 |
| 2012 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2011 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 8 |
| 2010 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2009 | 44 | 13 | 29.5% | 5 |
| 2008 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 19 |
| 2007 | 55 | 16 | 29.1% | 8 |
| 2006 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 14 |
| 2004 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 8 |
| 2003 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 5 |
| 2002 | 45 | 10 | 22.2% | 13 |
| 2001 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 6 |
| 2000 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 1999 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 7 |
| 1998 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 1997 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 6 |
| 1996 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 14 |
| 1995 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 24 |
| 1994 | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 10 |
| 1993 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 1992 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1991 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1990 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1989 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1988 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1979 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1976 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1975 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 1972 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1969 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 1968 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1967 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1964 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 5 |
| 1962 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1959 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1958 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1956 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1955 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 16:00 |
US Sassuolo
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.3% |
|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 16:45 |
Red Bull Salzburg
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.7% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 16:00 |
AC Milan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 19:00 |
Bournemouth
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.9% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 19:45 |
Udinese Calcio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 17:30 |
AC Milan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 19:45 |
AC Milan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 17:45 |
AC Milan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 19.5% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 14:00 |
Genoa CFC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.