What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 30 Apr 2023 → 26 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 28 | 30 Apr 2012 → 15 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 22 Oct 1997 → 31 Jan 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 25 Nov 2001 → 10 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 18 Dec 2008 → 21 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 14 Jan 2006 → 09 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 17 | 26 Sep 2000 → 06 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 17 | 29 Sep 1999 → 26 Dec 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 16 | 18 Oct 2017 → 20 Dec 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 16 | 04 Dec 2013 → 01 Feb 2014 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 1271 | 281 | 22.1% | 2 | 23 |
| FA Cup | 463 | 106 | 22.9% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 301 | 71 | 23.6% | 4 | 17 |
| League Cup | 219 | 34 | 15.5% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 91 | 27 | 29.7% | 3 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 1 | 7 |
| FA Community Shield | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 0 | 1 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 0 | 5 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 | 3 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Super Cup | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Intercontinental Cup (Toyota Cup) | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41 | 12 | 29.3% | 5 |
| 2025 | 56 | 20 | 35.7% | 8 |
| 2024 | 58 | 15 | 25.9% | 10 |
| 2023 | 73 | 9 | 12.3% | 34 |
| 2022 | 55 | 12 | 21.8% | 12 |
| 2021 | 66 | 19 | 28.8% | 8 |
| 2020 | 57 | 11 | 19.3% | 10 |
| 2019 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 12 |
| 2018 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2017 | 67 | 17 | 25.4% | 16 |
| 2016 | 62 | 13 | 21.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 53 | 14 | 26.4% | 14 |
| 2014 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 8 |
| 2013 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 8 |
| 2012 | 51 | 3 | 5.9% | 28 |
| 2011 | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 11 |
| 2010 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 12 |
| 2009 | 65 | 8 | 12.3% | 13 |
| 2008 | 60 | 16 | 26.7% | 9 |
| 2007 | 59 | 11 | 18.6% | 13 |
| 2006 | 54 | 7 | 13.0% | 17 |
| 2005 | 60 | 15 | 25.0% | 11 |
| 2004 | 59 | 15 | 25.4% | 8 |
| 2003 | 57 | 8 | 14.0% | 13 |
| 2002 | 62 | 11 | 17.7% | 11 |
| 2001 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 2000 | 60 | 12 | 20.0% | 17 |
| 1999 | 62 | 15 | 24.2% | 17 |
| 1998 | 55 | 20 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1997 | 54 | 12 | 22.2% | 14 |
| 1996 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 12 |
| 1995 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 9 |
| 1994 | 63 | 14 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 1993 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 12 |
| 1992 | 12 | 6 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 5 |
| 1990 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 1989 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1985 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1984 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1983 | 22 | 5 | 22.7% | 9 |
| 1982 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 2 |
| 1981 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1977 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 1976 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 1975 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1974 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1973 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 2 |
| 1971 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1969 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1968 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 4 |
| 1967 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1966 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1965 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1962 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1961 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1960 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1959 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1957 | 15 | 1 | 6.7% | 8 |
| 1956 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1950 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1948 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1939 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1936 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1934 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1931 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1926 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1923 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1913 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1912 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1911 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1910 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1908 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1907 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1906 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1904 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1903 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1901 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1897 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1896 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1890 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 701 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Manchester United drew 166 where the draw model expected 164.1 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 171.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.