What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 109 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Malta drew 20 where the draw model expected 20.1 from those particular fixtures — about 0 fewer, or 0.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 25.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 08 Feb 1998 → 08 Sep 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 12 Sep 2007 → 19 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 22 Mar 2013 → 13 Oct 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 28 Mar 2009 → 13 May 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 15 Nov 2000 → 09 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 20 Nov 2022 → 17 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 27 Nov 1996 → 11 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 18 Nov 1992 → 17 Nov 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 11 Nov 2021 → 27 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 23 Mar 2019 → 18 Nov 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 163 | 33 | 20.3% | 2 | 8 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 120 | 14 | 11.7% | 3 | 10 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 120 | 14 | 11.7% | 8 | 10 |
| Malta International Tournament | 29 | 8 | 27.6% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Nations League | 22 | 8 | 36.4% | 0 | 4 |
| Korea Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 0 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2023 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2021 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2018 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2016 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2015 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 2014 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2013 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2012 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2010 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 2009 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 10 |
| 2008 | 11 | 0 | 0.0% | 11 |
| 2007 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2006 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2005 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 2004 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2002 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2001 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 2000 | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 8 |
| 1999 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 8 |
| 1998 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1997 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1996 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1995 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1994 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 7 |
| 1993 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 9 |
| 1992 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1991 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 1990 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1989 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 4 |
| 1988 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1984 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 |
| 1982 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 1980 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1976 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1974 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1973 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1972 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1970 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1969 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1960 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1959 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 04 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 04 Oct 16:00 | Malta | vs | Andorra | – / – / – | 23.6% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.