Mali
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 106 matches (Jan 2015 – Jun 2026), Mali drew 36 where the draw model expected 26.2 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 2.2 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 26.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 26 Mar 1994 → 30 Oct 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 25 May 2014 → 14 Jan 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 02 Jan 1995 → 16 Jul 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 03 Jan 1993 → 29 Nov 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 09 Oct 2015 → 08 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 11 Aug 2010 → 03 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 23 Feb 1997 → 19 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 08 Feb 2012 → 24 Jan 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 29 Jan 2008 → 11 Oct 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 09 Jun 2007 → 21 Jan 2008 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 229 | 55 | 24.0% | 1 | 9 |
| African Cup of Nations qualification | 130 | 30 | 23.1% | 2 | 6 |
| Amílcar Cabral Cup | 74 | 22 | 29.7% | 2 | 4 |
| African Cup of Nations | 64 | 25 | 39.1% | 1 | 5 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 58 | 16 | 27.6% | 4 | 6 |
| All-African Games | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 0 | 4 |
| Tournament Burkina Faso | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| African Friendship Games | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2025 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 6 |
| 2024 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2023 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2022 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2021 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 2020 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2019 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 2018 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 2017 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 2 |
| 2016 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2015 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 3 |
| 2014 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2013 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2012 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2011 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2010 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 2009 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 3 |
| 2008 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 8 |
| 2007 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 6 |
| 2006 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2005 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 2004 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 4 |
| 2003 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 2002 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 2001 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 5 |
| 2000 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1999 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 2 |
| 1998 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 |
| 1997 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 9 |
| 1996 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1995 | 18 | 1 | 5.6% | 10 |
| 1994 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 11 |
| 1993 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 10 |
| 1992 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1991 | 15 | 5 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1990 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1989 | 9 | 5 | 55.6% | 3 |
| 1988 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 7 |
| 1987 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 4 |
| 1984 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1983 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 5 |
| 1982 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 2 |
| 1981 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1980 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 1979 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1978 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1975 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1974 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1973 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1971 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1970 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1967 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1966 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 1964 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1961 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
