What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 12 May 2019 → 08 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 22 | 15 Aug 2010 → 29 Jan 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 19 | 11 Apr 2015 → 27 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 19 Jan 2019 → 27 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 30 May 2020 → 31 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 13 Sep 2025 → 20 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 09 Nov 2024 → 31 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 27 Oct 2012 → 18 Dec 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 10 Nov 2002 → 23 Feb 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 26 Nov 2021 → 05 Feb 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bundesliga | 688 | 181 | 26.3% | 7 | 23 |
| 2. Bundesliga | 446 | 134 | 30.0% | 6 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Europa League | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Conference League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 3 | 6 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2025 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 11 |
| 2024 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 2023 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2022 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 6 |
| 2021 | 41 | 11 | 26.8% | 5 |
| 2020 | 33 | 8 | 24.2% | 13 |
| 2019 | 35 | 1 | 2.9% | 20 |
| 2018 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 7 |
| 2017 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 9 |
| 2016 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2015 | 36 | 7 | 19.4% | 19 |
| 2014 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2013 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 9 |
| 2012 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 11 |
| 2011 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 5 |
| 2010 | 36 | 5 | 13.9% | 19 |
| 2009 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 8 |
| 2008 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2007 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2006 | 35 | 15 | 42.9% | 3 |
| 2005 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 6 |
| 2004 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 5 |
| 2003 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2002 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 7 |
| 2001 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 7 |
| 2000 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 7 |
| 1999 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 1997 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 8 |
| 1996 | 32 | 12 | 37.5% | 4 |
| 1995 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 1994 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 1993 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 4 |
Over 464 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Mainz 05 drew 116 where the draw model expected 111.9 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 115.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.