What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 26 Jan 2002 → 06 Apr 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 07 Apr 2007 → 22 Sep 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 22 Sep 2001 → 15 Dec 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 06 Feb 2016 → 19 Apr 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 17 Mar 2014 → 16 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 23 Apr 1996 → 17 Sep 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 01 Feb 2022 → 19 Mar 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 05 Oct 2019 → 21 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 14 Feb 2015 → 11 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 02 Oct 1993 → 11 Dec 1993 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League One | 520 | 140 | 26.9% | 0 | 15 |
| Championship | 460 | 115 | 25.0% | 5 | 13 |
| FA Cup | 321 | 76 | 23.7% | 0 | 5 |
| League Two | 276 | 74 | 26.8% | 0 | 16 |
| National League | 228 | 64 | 28.1% | 11 | 12 |
| League Cup | 165 | 41 | 24.9% | 2 | 7 |
| Premier League | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 2 | 8 |
| Club Friendlies | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2025 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 6 |
| 2023 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 8 |
| 2022 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 13 |
| 2021 | 49 | 14 | 28.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 12 |
| 2019 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 13 |
| 2018 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 9 |
| 2017 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 8 |
| 2016 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 14 |
| 2015 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 13 |
| 2014 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 14 |
| 2013 | 53 | 18 | 34.0% | 6 |
| 2012 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 7 |
| 2011 | 53 | 21 | 39.6% | 5 |
| 2010 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 9 |
| 2009 | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2008 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 10 |
| 2007 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 15 |
| 2006 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 11 |
| 2005 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2004 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2003 | 51 | 16 | 31.4% | 8 |
| 2002 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 16 |
| 2001 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 15 |
| 2000 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 11 |
| 1999 | 54 | 13 | 24.1% | 9 |
| 1998 | 52 | 13 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 1997 | 53 | 22 | 41.5% | 5 |
| 1996 | 56 | 11 | 19.6% | 14 |
| 1995 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 1994 | 57 | 18 | 31.6% | 7 |
| 1993 | 27 | 4 | 14.8% | 13 |
| 1992 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1991 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1989 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1988 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 5 |
| 1987 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1986 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1985 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 3 |
| 1984 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1983 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1978 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1977 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1976 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1974 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1973 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 1972 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1970 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1968 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1967 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 |
| 1964 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1963 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1962 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1961 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1960 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1954 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1952 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1951 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1950 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1949 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1947 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1937 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1935 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1932 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1931 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1928 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1922 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1921 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1920 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1911 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1903 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1898 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1897 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1886 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1885 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1884 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 592 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Luton Town drew 149 where the draw model expected 159.2 from those particular fixtures — about 10 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 158.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.