What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 15 Aug 2011 → 08 Jan 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 05 May 1996 → 23 Nov 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 14 May 1995 → 05 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 30 Nov 2009 → 07 Feb 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 16 Dec 2007 → 01 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 17 May 2003 → 23 Aug 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 26 Oct 2003 → 04 Jan 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 28 Apr 2002 → 05 Oct 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 04 Mar 2001 → 29 Apr 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 29 Aug 2010 → 31 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Primeira Liga | 524 | 146 | 27.9% | 4 | 14 |
| Taça de Portugal | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 2 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2012 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 6 |
| 2011 | 29 | 5 | 17.2% | 13 |
| 2010 | 30 | 6 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2009 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2008 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 2007 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 5 |
| 2006 | 32 | 8 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2005 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2004 | 34 | 17 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 2003 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2002 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 8 |
| 2001 | 35 | 11 | 31.4% | 8 |
| 2000 | 34 | 14 | 41.2% | 6 |
| 1999 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 7 |
| 1997 | 21 | 4 | 19.1% | 6 |
| 1996 | 31 | 6 | 19.4% | 13 |
| 1995 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 13 |
| 1994 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
Over 547 matches (Aug 1994 – Oct 2026), União de Leiria drew 148 where the draw model expected 146.3 from those particular fixtures — about 2 more, or 0.2 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 138.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.