What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 08 Mar 2026 → 01 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 11 | 21 Jun 2020 → 17 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 22 Dec 2018 → 06 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 03 Dec 2016 → 04 Mar 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 19 Apr 2013 → 23 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 29 Aug 2026 → 24 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 19 Aug 2011 → 26 Oct 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 17 Oct 2010 → 28 Nov 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 04 Oct 2025 → 29 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 30 Jan 2021 → 13 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 306 | 95 | 31.1% | 1 | 11 |
| 3. Liga | 240 | 70 | 29.2% | 0 | 11 |
| Bundesliga | 68 | 18 | 26.5% | 0 | 11 |
| DFB-Pokal | 24 | 3 | 12.5% | 1 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2025 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2024 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 6 |
| 2023 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2022 | 17 | 5 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2021 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 7 |
| 2020 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 11 |
| 2019 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 10 |
| 2018 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2017 | 39 | 9 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 2015 | 33 | 11 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2014 | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 5 |
| 2013 | 37 | 7 | 18.9% | 11 |
| 2012 | 35 | 16 | 45.7% | 6 |
| 2011 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 9 |
| 2010 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 8 |
| 2009 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 7 |
| 2008 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 6 |
Over 407 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), FC Ingolstadt 04 drew 112 where the draw model expected 108.0 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 109.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.