What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 02 Apr 2023 → 30 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 20 Oct 2024 → 18 Jan 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 11 | 04 Aug 2017 → 21 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 10 | 23 Jan 2022 → 10 Apr 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 10 Apr 2026 → 29 Jul 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 26 Apr 2025 → 30 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 01 May 2021 → 01 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 09 Mar 2024 → 05 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 09 May 2015 → 22 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 11 Nov 2023 → 28 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 282 | 79 | 28.0% | 2 | 17 |
| 3. Liga | 190 | 64 | 33.7% | 5 | 7 |
| Bundesliga | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 4 | 12 |
| DFB-Pokal | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 | 4 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2025 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2024 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 10 |
| 2023 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 18 |
| 2022 | 34 | 11 | 32.4% | 10 |
| 2021 | 45 | 13 | 28.9% | 9 |
| 2020 | 31 | 9 | 29.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 36 | 14 | 38.9% | 5 |
| 2017 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 11 |
| 2016 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 6 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 8 |
| 2014 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 5 |
| 2013 | 21 | 9 | 42.9% | 5 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2010 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 4 |
| 2009 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2008 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 443 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Holstein Kiel drew 126 where the draw model expected 115.9 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 1.1 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 119.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.