What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 09 Sep 2000 → 23 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 03 May 1997 → 06 Dec 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 10 Jan 2015 → 25 Apr 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 11 Sep 2010 → 14 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 13 May 2026 → 15 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 01 Feb 2023 → 07 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 30 Oct 2021 → 29 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 07 May 2005 → 24 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 26 Apr 2025 → 10 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 22 Oct 2023 → 27 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Premiership | 1131 | 276 | 24.4% | 0 | 17 |
| Scottish League Cup | 81 | 17 | 21.0% | 3 | 5 |
| Scottish Cup | 73 | 18 | 24.7% | 0 | 4 |
| Scottish Championship | 63 | 10 | 15.9% | 2 | 16 |
| UEFA Europa League | 50 | 10 | 20.0% | 1 | 5 |
| UEFA Conference League | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 1 | 6 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 1 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 3 | 3 |
| UEFA Champions League | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 2 | 2 |
| FA Cup | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39 | 7 | 18.0% | 13 |
| 2025 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 12 |
| 2024 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2023 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 13 |
| 2022 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 10 |
| 2021 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2020 | 28 | 7 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2018 | 47 | 8 | 17.0% | 8 |
| 2017 | 47 | 16 | 34.0% | 8 |
| 2016 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2015 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 16 |
| 2014 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 8 |
| 2013 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 7 |
| 2012 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 7 |
| 2011 | 47 | 14 | 29.8% | 9 |
| 2010 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 14 |
| 2009 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 7 |
| 2008 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2007 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 11 |
| 2006 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 13 |
| 2004 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 9 |
| 2002 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 10 |
| 2001 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 7 |
| 2000 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 17 |
| 1999 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 42 | 15 | 35.7% | 7 |
| 1997 | 35 | 5 | 14.3% | 17 |
| 1996 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 1995 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 8 |
| 1994 | 18 | 3 | 16.7% | 10 |
| 1993 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1992 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1990 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1988 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1961 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1886 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 540 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Heart of Midlothian drew 126 where the draw model expected 125.4 from those particular fixtures — about 1 more, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 124.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.