What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 07 Mar 2026 → 15 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 26 Jan 2021 → 27 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 28 Aug 2026 → 28 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 19 Aug 2025 → 08 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 22 Oct 2024 → 26 Dec 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 22 Mar 2022 → 09 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 23 Sep 2023 → 11 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 21 Nov 2020 → 09 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 05 Aug 2023 → 09 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 30 Nov 2019 → 25 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 276 | 68 | 24.6% | 11 | 14 |
| National League | 100 | 22 | 22.0% | 0 | 13 |
| FA Cup | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 1 | 3 |
| League Cup | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 14 |
| 2025 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 13 |
| 2024 | 49 | 13 | 26.5% | 12 |
| 2023 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 10 |
| 2022 | 50 | 9 | 18.0% | 12 |
| 2021 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 14 |
| 2020 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 9 |
| 2019 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 5 |
| 2018 | 27 | 7 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2012 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 2005 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2002 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 399 matches (Aug 2018 – Oct 2026), Harrogate Town drew 91 where the draw model expected 107.8 from those particular fixtures — about 17 fewer, or 1.9 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 106.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.