What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | 30 Nov 2025 → 21 Mar 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 9 | 20 Sep 2025 → 08 Nov 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 16 Mar 2019 → 28 Jul 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 27 Aug 2016 → 29 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 12 Aug 2015 → 04 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 07 Oct 2023 → 03 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 08 Apr 2023 → 21 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 26 Sep 2017 → 18 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 13 Apr 2022 → 12 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 30 Mar 2018 → 28 Jul 2018 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liga MX | 530 | 163 | 30.8% | 2 | 13 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Campeón de Campeones | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 12 |
| 2025 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 6 |
| 2023 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 8 |
| 2022 | 38 | 14 | 36.8% | 7 |
| 2021 | 36 | 16 | 44.4% | 4 |
| 2020 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 5 |
| 2019 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 9 |
| 2018 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2017 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 8 |
| 2016 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 9 |
| 2015 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2014 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 4 |
| 2013 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 6 |
| 2012 | 19 | 5 | 26.3% | 6 |
Over 447 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Guadalajara Chivas drew 133 where the draw model expected 126.5 from those particular fixtures — about 7 more, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 121.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.