What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 268 matches (Nov 1991 – Oct 2025), Gretna drew 50 where the draw model expected 53.3 from those particular fixtures — about 3 fewer, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 60.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 15 Jan 2005 → 23 Aug 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 11 Feb 2006 → 29 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 18 Sep 2004 → 01 Jan 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 16 Jan 2008 → 05 Apr 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 25 Aug 2007 → 10 Nov 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 28 Oct 2006 → 06 Jan 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 14 Nov 2003 → 24 Jan 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 10 Aug 2002 → 05 Oct 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 19 Nov 2005 → 07 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 20 Mar 2004 → 08 May 2004 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League Two | 108 | 22 | 20.4% | 16 | 16 |
| Scottish Premiership | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 1 | 14 |
| Scottish Cup | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 2 | 3 |
| Scottish Championship | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 1 | 11 |
| Scottish League One | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 16 | 16 |
| Scottish League Cup | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| FA Cup | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| UEFA Europa League | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2022 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2019 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2016 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 2015 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2008 | 21 | 5 | 23.8% | 13 |
| 2007 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 12 |
| 2006 | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | 17 |
| 2005 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 22 |
| 2004 | 40 | 4 | 10.0% | 13 |
| 2003 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 7 |
| 2002 | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 9 |
| 1993 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 03 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 03 Oct 14:00 |
Nairn County
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% | SCO · Scottish Cup |
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.