ACF Fiorentina
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 578 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), ACF Fiorentina drew 155 where the draw model expected 144.2 from those particular fixtures — about 11 more, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 149.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 07 Apr 2015 → 01 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 13 Aug 2021 → 15 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 20 Oct 2009 → 24 Jan 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 15 Apr 2006 → 11 Nov 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 09 Nov 2008 → 08 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 30 Apr 1995 → 19 Nov 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 03 Apr 2022 → 14 Aug 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 26 Jan 2025 → 30 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 11 | 03 Oct 2024 → 28 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 12 Sep 1998 → 22 Nov 1998 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 1113 | 317 | 28.5% | 0 | 22 |
| UEFA Europa League | 97 | 30 | 30.9% | 7 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 64 | 9 | 14.1% | 2 | 5 |
| UEFA Conference League | 54 | 11 | 20.4% | 16 | 16 |
| Serie B | 46 | 16 | 34.8% | 2 | 9 |
| UEFA Champions League | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 8 | 8 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 1 | 6 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 3 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 0 | 3 |
| Supercoppa Italiana | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2025 | 55 | 11 | 20.0% | 12 |
| 2024 | 56 | 19 | 33.9% | 11 |
| 2023 | 63 | 15 | 23.8% | 10 |
| 2022 | 48 | 10 | 20.8% | 13 |
| 2021 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 19 |
| 2020 | 39 | 14 | 35.9% | 6 |
| 2019 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 6 |
| 2018 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 10 |
| 2017 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2016 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 8 |
| 2015 | 58 | 10 | 17.2% | 27 |
| 2014 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 7 |
| 2013 | 48 | 7 | 14.6% | 9 |
| 2012 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2011 | 40 | 17 | 42.5% | 4 |
| 2010 | 46 | 9 | 19.6% | 6 |
| 2009 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 12 |
| 2008 | 56 | 12 | 21.4% | 10 |
| 2007 | 48 | 19 | 39.6% | 5 |
| 2006 | 41 | 8 | 19.5% | 18 |
| 2005 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 10 |
| 2004 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 20 | 9 | 45.0% | 3 |
| 2002 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 7 |
| 2001 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2000 | 38 | 13 | 34.2% | 8 |
| 1999 | 44 | 16 | 36.4% | 5 |
| 1998 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 11 |
| 1997 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 6 |
| 1996 | 37 | 14 | 37.8% | 10 |
| 1995 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 16 |
| 1994 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1973 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1972 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1970 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1969 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1968 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1965 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1961 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 13:00 |
Genoa CFC
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 13:00 |
ACF Fiorentina
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 11:30 |
Inter Milan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 15.9% |
|
| Thu, 29 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 29 Oct 19:45 |
ACF Fiorentina
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
| Mon, 02 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 02 Nov 17:30 |
US Sassuolo
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.7% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 19:45 |
ACF Fiorentina
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.