What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 26 Nov 2022 → 08 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 7 | 23 Oct 2021 → 05 Dec 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 7 | 17 Oct 2018 → 25 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 7 | 10 Oct 1999 → 28 Nov 1999 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 6 | 24 Mar 2024 → 28 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 6 | 13 Jan 2024 → 14 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 6 | 05 Sep 2021 → 02 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 11 Oct 2020 → 01 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 06 Nov 2023 → 25 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 09 Apr 2022 → 04 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie C | 240 | 89 | 37.1% | 6 | 7 |
| Serie B | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 3 | 7 |
| Coppa Italia | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 2023 | 37 | 16 | 43.2% | 4 |
| 2022 | 38 | 16 | 42.1% | 6 |
| 2021 | 41 | 15 | 36.6% | 7 |
| 2020 | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 5 |
| 2019 | 27 | 10 | 37.0% | 4 |
| 2018 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2017 | 19 | 8 | 42.1% | 3 |
| 2016 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2000 | 22 | 7 | 31.8% | 4 |
| 1999 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 7 |
Over 242 matches (Jul 2016 – Apr 2024), Fermana drew 90 where the draw model expected 78.6 from those particular fixtures — about 11 more, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 73.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.