What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 23 | 21 Feb 1993 → 26 Oct 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 29 Feb 2012 → 07 Jun 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 01 Mar 1997 → 27 Nov 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 13 Nov 1994 → 11 Oct 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 16 Aug 2006 → 08 Sep 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 25 May 2011 → 11 Nov 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 24 Mar 2021 → 05 Sep 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 09 Jun 2015 → 17 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 31 May 2014 → 12 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 04 Jun 2000 → 10 Dec 2000 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 274 | 69 | 25.2% | 1 | 10 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 92 | 13 | 14.1% | 1 | 8 |
| UEFA Euro qualification | 79 | 10 | 12.7% | 7 | 10 |
| Baltic Cup | 67 | 18 | 26.9% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Nations League | 28 | 9 | 32.1% | 0 | 5 |
| King's Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| United Arab Emirates Friendship Tournament | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Malta International Tournament | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Four Nations Tournament | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| FIFA Series | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Olympic Games | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 2024 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 2023 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 4 |
| 2022 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2021 | 13 | 1 | 7.7% | 8 |
| 2020 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2019 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 6 |
| 2018 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2017 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 7 |
| 2016 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2015 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 2014 | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 8 |
| 2013 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2012 | 13 | 0 | 0.0% | 13 |
| 2011 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 11 |
| 2010 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 3 |
| 2009 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 5 |
| 2008 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2007 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 8 |
| 2006 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2005 | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 7 |
| 2004 | 16 | 4 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 5 |
| 2002 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2001 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 4 |
| 2000 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 8 |
| 1999 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 6 |
| 1998 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 5 |
| 1997 | 16 | 1 | 6.3% | 14 |
| 1996 | 13 | 6 | 46.2% | 3 |
| 1995 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 1994 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 10 |
| 1993 | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 13 |
| 1992 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1991 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1945 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1942 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1940 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1939 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1938 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 6 |
| 1937 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1936 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 8 | 5 | 62.5% | 1 |
| 1934 | 3 | 3 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1933 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1932 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1931 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1930 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1929 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1928 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1926 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1925 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1924 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1923 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1922 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1920 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 134 matches (Mar 2015 – Oct 2026), Estonia drew 32 where the draw model expected 28.1 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 31.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.