Ecuador
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every national team ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 1 Oct 2026.
Over 129 matches (Mar 2015 – Jun 2026), Ecuador drew 40 where the draw model expected 29.6 from those particular fixtures — about 10 more, or 2.2 standard errors, more of a gap than most, though roughly one subject in twenty looks like this by chance.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 5 times running. A flat league average would have expected 29.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 03 Jun 2007 → 27 May 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 09 Jul 2011 → 07 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 9 | 06 Jun 2015 → 17 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 02 Jun 2004 → 20 Oct 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 24 May 1995 → 13 Jul 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 31 Jan 1993 → 03 Jul 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 21 Nov 2023 → 26 Jun 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 29 Nov 2022 → 12 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 08 Oct 2020 → 13 Jun 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 16 Aug 2000 → 02 Jun 2001 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friendly | 250 | 77 | 30.8% | 2 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup qualification | 179 | 46 | 25.7% | 1 | 8 |
| Copa América | 130 | 28 | 21.5% | 0 | 7 |
| FIFA World Cup | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 2 | 4 |
| Bolivarian Games | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 | 4 |
| Brazil Independence Cup | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0 | 3 |
| Korea Cup | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 | 3 |
| Gold Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Kirin Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Copa América qualification | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Kirin Challenge Cup | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 2025 | 10 | 7 | 70.0% | 1 |
| 2024 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 7 |
| 2023 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2022 | 13 | 8 | 61.5% | 1 |
| 2021 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2020 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2018 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 2017 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2015 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 9 |
| 2014 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 2013 | 13 | 4 | 30.8% | 5 |
| 2012 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2011 | 17 | 7 | 41.2% | 9 |
| 2010 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 2009 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 4 |
| 2008 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2007 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 13 |
| 2006 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 2005 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 5 |
| 2004 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 2002 | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 6 |
| 2001 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 4 |
| 2000 | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 7 |
| 1999 | 13 | 5 | 38.5% | 6 |
| 1998 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1997 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 6 |
| 1996 | 16 | 2 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1995 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1994 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1993 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 1992 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 14 | 5 | 35.7% | 2 |
| 1988 | 9 | 3 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1987 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 5 |
| 1985 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1984 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1983 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 2 |
| 1981 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1979 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 7 |
| 1977 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 5 |
| 1976 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1975 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1973 | 10 | 6 | 60.0% | 2 |
| 1972 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1969 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1966 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1960 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1957 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1955 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1953 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1949 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 1947 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1945 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1942 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1941 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1939 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
