Dynamo Dresden
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 403 matches (Feb 2015 – Oct 2026), Dynamo Dresden drew 98 where the draw model expected 109.8 from those particular fixtures — about 12 fewer, or 1.3 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 109.5 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 13 Dec 2014 → 25 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 15 Mar 2026 → 05 Sep 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 16 | 15 Oct 2023 → 18 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 04 Mar 2005 → 09 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 05 Nov 2017 → 18 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 02 Oct 2020 → 29 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 13 Apr 2019 → 18 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 26 Aug 2015 → 31 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 25 Oct 2025 → 24 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 06 Aug 2021 → 23 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 380 | 104 | 27.4% | 1 | 16 |
| 3. Liga | 304 | 71 | 23.4% | 2 | 19 |
| Bundesliga | 68 | 22 | 32.4% | 0 | 7 |
| UEFA Europa League | 48 | 16 | 33.3% | 0 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 1 | 4 |
| DFB-Pokal | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 14 | 1 | 7.1% | 6 | 6 |
| Club Friendlies | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27 | 5 | 18.5% | 16 |
| 2025 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 8 |
| 2024 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2023 | 20 | 1 | 5.0% | 10 |
| 2022 | 18 | 10 | 55.6% | 3 |
| 2021 | 41 | 6 | 14.6% | 10 |
| 2020 | 35 | 6 | 17.1% | 11 |
| 2019 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 11 |
| 2018 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2017 | 37 | 10 | 27.0% | 6 |
| 2016 | 37 | 15 | 40.5% | 4 |
| 2015 | 38 | 7 | 18.4% | 18 |
| 2014 | 39 | 16 | 41.0% | 7 |
| 2013 | 34 | 12 | 35.3% | 5 |
| 2012 | 36 | 13 | 36.1% | 3 |
| 2011 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 8 |
| 2010 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 8 |
| 2009 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 10 |
| 2008 | 19 | 6 | 31.6% | 5 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 2005 | 33 | 5 | 15.2% | 16 |
| 2004 | 17 | 3 | 17.7% | 8 |
| 1995 | 17 | 4 | 23.5% | 5 |
| 1994 | 31 | 10 | 32.3% | 7 |
| 1993 | 20 | 8 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 1991 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1988 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1987 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1986 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1985 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1980 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1978 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1976 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1975 | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 3 |
| 1974 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1972 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1971 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 11:00 |
VfL Osnabrück
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sun, 18 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 18 Oct 11:30 |
Dynamo Dresden
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 12:30 |
Holstein Kiel
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.4% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 17:00 |
Dynamo Dresden
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 20.8% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 12:30 |
Hannover 96
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
| Fri, 06 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 06 Nov 17:30 |
Dynamo Dresden
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.