What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 30 Jan 2026 → 01 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 03 Nov 2001 → 23 Feb 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 01 Aug 1975 → 31 Aug 1976 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 15 | 12 Apr 2004 → 22 Sep 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 16 Dec 2020 → 23 Feb 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 14 | 16 Oct 2010 → 01 Jan 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 05 Mar 2003 → 12 Aug 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 22 Sep 1993 → 27 Nov 1993 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 23 Apr 2011 → 24 Sep 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 03 May 1997 → 15 Oct 1997 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 1118 | 296 | 26.5% | 2 | 18 |
| FA Cup | 359 | 73 | 20.3% | 1 | 7 |
| Premier League | 266 | 70 | 26.3% | 6 | 17 |
| League Cup | 194 | 46 | 23.7% | 1 | 6 |
| League One | 92 | 21 | 22.8% | 3 | 10 |
| Club Friendlies | 21 | 2 | 9.5% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA Champions League | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 4 | 4 |
| UEFA Europa League | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 4 | 4 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 44 | 6 | 13.6% | 22 |
| 2025 | 54 | 15 | 27.8% | 10 |
| 2024 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2023 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 8 |
| 2022 | 53 | 13 | 24.5% | 12 |
| 2021 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 11 |
| 2020 | 48 | 13 | 27.1% | 7 |
| 2019 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 8 |
| 2018 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 12 |
| 2017 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 8 |
| 2016 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 53 | 18 | 34.0% | 7 |
| 2014 | 53 | 11 | 20.8% | 12 |
| 2013 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 8 |
| 2012 | 50 | 14 | 28.0% | 7 |
| 2011 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 13 |
| 2010 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 13 |
| 2009 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 10 |
| 2008 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 7 |
| 2007 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 7 |
| 2006 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 9 |
| 2005 | 51 | 20 | 39.2% | 8 |
| 2004 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 15 |
| 2003 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 14 |
| 2002 | 47 | 6 | 12.8% | 12 |
| 2001 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2000 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 47 | 9 | 19.2% | 11 |
| 1998 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 9 |
| 1997 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 13 |
| 1996 | 45 | 18 | 40.0% | 5 |
| 1995 | 50 | 12 | 24.0% | 8 |
| 1994 | 53 | 16 | 30.2% | 6 |
| 1993 | 30 | 4 | 13.3% | 14 |
| 1992 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1991 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 4 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1987 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1986 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 4 |
| 1985 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1984 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1982 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1979 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1978 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1977 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1976 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 10 |
| 1975 | 11 | 1 | 9.1% | 7 |
| 1974 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1973 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 6 |
| 1972 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1971 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1969 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 2 |
| 1968 | 11 | 3 | 27.3% | 3 |
| 1967 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1965 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1962 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1960 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1954 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1953 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1950 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1949 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1948 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1947 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1946 | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 7 |
| 1939 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1936 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1935 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1934 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1933 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1932 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1931 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1930 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1929 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1928 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1927 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1924 | 5 | 3 | 60.0% | 1 |
| 1923 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1922 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1921 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1920 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1914 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1913 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1912 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1911 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1910 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1909 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1908 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1907 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1906 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1905 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1904 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1903 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1902 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1901 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1900 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1899 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1898 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1897 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1896 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1895 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1894 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1893 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1892 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1891 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1890 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1889 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1888 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1887 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1886 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1885 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1884 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 616 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), Derby County drew 164 where the draw model expected 170.4 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 164.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.