What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15 | 08 Sep 2019 → 08 Feb 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 01 Oct 2023 → 20 Jan 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 25 Feb 2006 → 28 May 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 04 Sep 2005 → 25 Oct 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 8 | 03 Apr 2022 → 14 Sep 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 8 | 05 Oct 2021 → 15 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 28 Jan 2018 → 18 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 7 | 29 Nov 2025 → 17 Jan 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 7 | 03 Feb 2021 → 03 Mar 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 7 | 24 Feb 2019 → 07 Apr 2019 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 208 | 64 | 30.8% | 0 | 14 |
| Serie C | 204 | 46 | 22.6% | 4 | 15 |
| Coppa Italia | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 0 | 2 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32 | 11 | 34.4% | 6 |
| 2025 | 38 | 15 | 39.5% | 6 |
| 2024 | 40 | 18 | 45.0% | 4 |
| 2023 | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 12 |
| 2022 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 8 |
| 2021 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 8 |
| 2020 | 30 | 9 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2019 | 31 | 5 | 16.1% | 9 |
| 2018 | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 8 |
| 2017 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 7 |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2014 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2012 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 21 | 2 | 9.5% | 13 |
| 2005 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 11 |
| 2004 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 4 |
Over 344 matches (Aug 2015 – Oct 2026), US Catanzaro drew 97 where the draw model expected 103.1 from those particular fixtures — about 6 fewer, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 104.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.