What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30 | 13 Sep 2014 → 07 Mar 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 14 Mar 1998 → 08 Sep 1998 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 29 Mar 2024 → 01 Oct 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 17 | 26 Nov 2013 → 22 Feb 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 29 Dec 2023 → 16 Mar 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 27 Sep 2003 → 26 Dec 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 15 | 15 Jan 1994 → 09 Apr 1994 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 14 Aug 2018 → 20 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 23 Mar 1996 → 20 Aug 1996 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 23 Aug 2025 → 18 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League Two | 903 | 249 | 27.6% | 0 | 29 |
| League One | 506 | 130 | 25.7% | 7 | 15 |
| FA Cup | 244 | 50 | 20.5% | 1 | 5 |
| League Cup | 150 | 31 | 20.7% | 1 | 5 |
| National League | 63 | 13 | 20.6% | 3 | 12 |
| Club Friendlies | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 8 |
| 2025 | 51 | 11 | 21.6% | 12 |
| 2024 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 17 |
| 2023 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 2022 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 9 |
| 2021 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 38 | 10 | 26.3% | 9 |
| 2019 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 6 |
| 2018 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 13 |
| 2017 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 8 |
| 2016 | 54 | 22 | 40.7% | 8 |
| 2015 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 12 |
| 2014 | 49 | 9 | 18.4% | 18 |
| 2013 | 50 | 16 | 32.0% | 7 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 9 |
| 2011 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 8 |
| 2010 | 47 | 12 | 25.5% | 6 |
| 2009 | 51 | 18 | 35.3% | 6 |
| 2008 | 53 | 10 | 18.9% | 8 |
| 2007 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 8 |
| 2006 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 9 |
| 2005 | 26 | 5 | 19.2% | 8 |
| 2004 | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 5 |
| 2003 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 15 |
| 2002 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 10 |
| 2001 | 52 | 19 | 36.5% | 5 |
| 2000 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 7 |
| 1999 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 1998 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 19 |
| 1997 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 9 |
| 1996 | 55 | 13 | 23.6% | 13 |
| 1995 | 48 | 15 | 31.3% | 11 |
| 1994 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 15 |
| 1993 | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 9 |
| 1992 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1990 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1989 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1988 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1986 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 2 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1981 | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1980 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1978 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1977 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1976 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1975 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1974 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1973 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1972 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1971 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1969 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 3 |
| 1968 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1965 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1963 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1962 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 3 |
| 1961 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1958 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1957 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 1 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1954 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1950 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1945 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1938 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1937 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1932 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1931 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1928 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1927 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1926 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1925 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1910 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1909 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1908 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
Over 582 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Carlisle United drew 158 where the draw model expected 159.5 from those particular fixtures — about 2 fewer, or 0.1 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 156.2 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.