What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 19 Jan 2019 → 21 Aug 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 20 Sep 2025 → 29 Dec 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 05 Nov 1996 → 11 Feb 1997 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 24 Feb 2024 → 17 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 16 | 28 Aug 2018 → 22 Dec 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 16 | 25 Aug 2012 → 24 Nov 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 29 Dec 2001 → 02 Mar 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 25 Nov 2020 → 20 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 21 Aug 2021 → 23 Oct 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 11 | 12 Aug 2023 → 03 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Championship | 933 | 264 | 28.3% | 2 | 16 |
| League One | 276 | 79 | 28.6% | 4 | 15 |
| FA Cup | 264 | 69 | 26.1% | 1 | 6 |
| League Two | 230 | 71 | 30.9% | 3 | 16 |
| League Cup | 170 | 26 | 15.3% | 2 | 6 |
| Premier League | 76 | 13 | 17.1% | 16 | 16 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 15 | 3 | 20.0% | 3 | 3 |
| FA Community Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 8 |
| 2025 | 54 | 14 | 25.9% | 19 |
| 2024 | 47 | 7 | 14.9% | 16 |
| 2023 | 51 | 9 | 17.7% | 11 |
| 2022 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 10 |
| 2021 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 12 |
| 2020 | 48 | 14 | 29.2% | 10 |
| 2019 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 20 |
| 2018 | 48 | 8 | 16.7% | 16 |
| 2017 | 51 | 10 | 19.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 52 | 14 | 26.9% | 8 |
| 2015 | 54 | 19 | 35.2% | 7 |
| 2014 | 49 | 10 | 20.4% | 8 |
| 2013 | 43 | 16 | 37.2% | 5 |
| 2012 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 16 |
| 2011 | 54 | 19 | 35.2% | 5 |
| 2010 | 52 | 12 | 23.1% | 8 |
| 2009 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 11 |
| 2008 | 56 | 18 | 32.1% | 6 |
| 2007 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 5 |
| 2006 | 47 | 13 | 27.7% | 6 |
| 2005 | 52 | 15 | 28.8% | 7 |
| 2004 | 51 | 17 | 33.3% | 9 |
| 2003 | 52 | 17 | 32.7% | 8 |
| 2002 | 51 | 8 | 15.7% | 13 |
| 2001 | 54 | 17 | 31.5% | 7 |
| 2000 | 49 | 18 | 36.7% | 9 |
| 1999 | 57 | 24 | 42.1% | 4 |
| 1998 | 53 | 15 | 28.3% | 10 |
| 1997 | 51 | 22 | 43.1% | 7 |
| 1996 | 52 | 9 | 17.3% | 11 |
| 1995 | 51 | 13 | 25.5% | 7 |
| 1994 | 56 | 13 | 23.2% | 10 |
| 1993 | 27 | 11 | 40.7% | 6 |
| 1992 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1991 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1990 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1988 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 8 |
| 1987 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1986 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1985 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1981 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1979 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1978 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 5 |
| 1976 | 9 | 1 | 11.1% | 4 |
| 1975 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1974 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1973 | 9 | 4 | 44.4% | 1 |
| 1972 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1971 | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1970 | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 5 |
| 1969 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 4 |
| 1968 | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 4 |
| 1967 | 10 | 4 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 6 |
| 1964 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1963 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1962 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 2 |
| 1960 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1959 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1958 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1955 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1954 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1953 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1952 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1951 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1950 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1949 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1948 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1947 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1946 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1939 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1938 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1937 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1 |
| 1936 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1935 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1934 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1933 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1932 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 |
| 1931 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1930 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1929 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1928 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1927 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 4 |
| 1926 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1925 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 1924 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 1923 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 1922 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1921 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1920 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1915 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
Over 593 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Cardiff City drew 144 where the draw model expected 161.0 from those particular fixtures — about 17 fewer, or 1.6 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 158.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.