What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Oct 2026.
Over 509 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Bologna drew 141 where the draw model expected 132.0 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 0.9 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 135.8 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 26 Apr 2008 → 02 Nov 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 14 | 23 Oct 2021 → 21 Jan 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 22 May 2015 → 07 Nov 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 10 Dec 2017 → 11 Mar 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 16 Oct 2022 → 19 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 09 Oct 2006 → 19 Dec 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 09 May 2025 → 20 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 08 Mar 2026 → 25 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 27 Oct 2010 → 12 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 21 Feb 2009 → 02 May 2009 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 961 | 285 | 29.7% | 0 | 15 |
| Serie B | 168 | 56 | 33.3% | 1 | 12 |
| Coppa Italia | 49 | 7 | 14.3% | 0 | 5 |
| UEFA Europa League | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 3 | 8 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 20 | 6 | 30.0% | 0 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 14 | 2 | 14.3% | 1 | 3 |
| UEFA Champions League | 11 | 4 | 36.4% | 0 | 4 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Supercoppa Italiana | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 10 |
| 2025 | 59 | 17 | 28.8% | 11 |
| 2024 | 45 | 17 | 37.8% | 9 |
| 2023 | 45 | 16 | 35.6% | 6 |
| 2022 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 8 |
| 2021 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 11 |
| 2020 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 9 |
| 2019 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2018 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2017 | 42 | 7 | 16.7% | 9 |
| 2016 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 7 |
| 2015 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 14 |
| 2014 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 4 |
| 2013 | 40 | 14 | 35.0% | 5 |
| 2012 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 8 |
| 2011 | 41 | 9 | 22.0% | 9 |
| 2010 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 10 |
| 2009 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 10 |
| 2008 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 18 |
| 2007 | 45 | 16 | 35.6% | 5 |
| 2006 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 12 |
| 2005 | 43 | 20 | 46.5% | 4 |
| 2004 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 9 |
| 2003 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 4 |
| 2002 | 33 | 10 | 30.3% | 5 |
| 2001 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 32 | 10 | 31.3% | 7 |
| 1999 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1998 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 7 |
| 1997 | 33 | 12 | 36.4% | 6 |
| 1996 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 1990 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 6 |
| 1974 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1971 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1970 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1968 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1967 | 8 | 4 | 50.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1964 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 11 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 11 Oct 13:00 |
US Lecce
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.6% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 16:00 |
Bologna
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 22.8% |
|
| Sat, 24 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 24 Oct 13:00 |
Cagliari Calcio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 30.8% |
|
| Wed, 28 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 28 Oct 17:30 |
AC Milan
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.0% |
|
| Sat, 31 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 31 Oct 14:00 |
Bologna
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 23.5% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 17:00 |
Parma Calcio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.