What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 10 Mar 2000 → 12 Nov 2000 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 13 Jan 2021 → 08 May 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 17 | 27 Jan 2015 → 09 Aug 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 16 | 17 Feb 2018 → 25 Aug 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 15 | 09 Sep 2010 → 31 Oct 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 15 | 19 Apr 2005 → 20 Sep 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 14 | 14 Apr 2017 → 01 Oct 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 13 | 14 Feb 2026 → 19 Apr 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 13 | 15 Sep 2022 → 12 Nov 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 13 | 09 Dec 2019 → 01 Mar 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eredivisie | 988 | 214 | 21.7% | 2 | 20 |
| UEFA Europa League | 157 | 43 | 27.4% | 3 | 8 |
| KNVB Cup | 75 | 10 | 13.3% | 2 | 6 |
| UEFA Conference League | 44 | 4 | 9.1% | 0 | 18 |
| Club Friendlies | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 2 | 2 |
| UEFA Champions League | 10 | 5 | 50.0% | 0 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Johan Cruyff Shield | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 13 |
| 2025 | 60 | 15 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2024 | 45 | 11 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2023 | 52 | 10 | 19.2% | 12 |
| 2022 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 13 |
| 2021 | 46 | 6 | 13.0% | 18 |
| 2020 | 32 | 9 | 28.1% | 8 |
| 2019 | 51 | 12 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2018 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 16 |
| 2017 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 14 |
| 2016 | 50 | 11 | 22.0% | 10 |
| 2015 | 47 | 6 | 12.8% | 17 |
| 2014 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 8 |
| 2013 | 49 | 11 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2012 | 45 | 12 | 26.7% | 5 |
| 2011 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 9 |
| 2010 | 47 | 10 | 21.3% | 15 |
| 2009 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 12 |
| 2008 | 36 | 8 | 22.2% | 10 |
| 2007 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 7 |
| 2006 | 49 | 12 | 24.5% | 10 |
| 2005 | 46 | 8 | 17.4% | 15 |
| 2004 | 45 | 8 | 17.8% | 12 |
| 2003 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 8 |
| 2002 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 10 |
| 2001 | 34 | 6 | 17.7% | 9 |
| 2000 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 20 |
| 1999 | 33 | 4 | 12.1% | 10 |
| 1998 | 19 | 10 | 52.6% | 3 |
| 1997 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 4 |
| 1996 | 20 | 3 | 15.0% | 10 |
| 1982 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1981 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1978 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1977 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2 |
Over 554 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), AZ Alkmaar drew 116 where the draw model expected 111.7 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.5 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 125.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.