What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 14 Nov 2015 → 20 Aug 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 18 | 16 Feb 2013 → 17 Aug 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 03 Aug 2019 → 07 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 18 Jul 2023 → 28 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 13 | 20 Jan 2024 → 06 Apr 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 17 Mar 2018 → 04 Aug 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 13 | 21 Oct 2017 → 06 Jan 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 12 | 18 Aug 2018 → 03 Nov 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 12 | 29 Apr 2017 → 09 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 12 | 29 Jan 2011 → 29 Mar 2011 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish Championship | 678 | 195 | 28.8% | 2 | 15 |
| Scottish League One | 396 | 76 | 19.2% | 8 | 23 |
| Scottish League Cup | 83 | 10 | 12.0% | 5 | 6 |
| Scottish Cup | 72 | 17 | 23.6% | 2 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 10 |
| 2025 | 45 | 14 | 31.1% | 6 |
| 2024 | 45 | 9 | 20.0% | 13 |
| 2023 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 14 |
| 2022 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 7 |
| 2021 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 5 |
| 2020 | 25 | 8 | 32.0% | 4 |
| 2019 | 42 | 5 | 11.9% | 15 |
| 2018 | 44 | 8 | 18.2% | 13 |
| 2017 | 47 | 11 | 23.4% | 12 |
| 2016 | 43 | 7 | 16.3% | 26 |
| 2015 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 7 |
| 2014 | 39 | 5 | 12.8% | 10 |
| 2013 | 42 | 8 | 19.1% | 18 |
| 2012 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 11 |
| 2011 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 12 |
| 2010 | 36 | 6 | 16.7% | 11 |
| 2009 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 5 |
| 2008 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 7 |
| 2007 | 39 | 11 | 28.2% | 7 |
| 2006 | 40 | 10 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2005 | 44 | 12 | 27.3% | 10 |
| 2004 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 7 |
| 2003 | 39 | 10 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2002 | 42 | 16 | 38.1% | 6 |
| 2001 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 6 |
| 2000 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 6 |
| 1999 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 11 |
| 1998 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 8 |
| 1997 | 19 | 4 | 21.1% | 5 |
| 1995 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 1994 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 5 |
Over 496 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Ayr United drew 119 where the draw model expected 122.5 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 0.4 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 120.7 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.