What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 18 Jan 2025 → 24 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 16 | 07 Mar 2004 → 12 Jun 2004 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 27 Oct 2015 → 16 Jan 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 9 | 01 Feb 2023 → 19 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 9 | 30 Sep 2013 → 23 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 9 | 15 Aug 2007 → 06 Oct 2007 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 8 | 16 Mar 2024 → 25 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 8 | 21 Sep 2023 → 29 Oct 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 8 | 29 Nov 2020 → 23 Dec 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 13 May 2017 → 15 Sep 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie B | 430 | 132 | 30.7% | 1 | 16 |
| Serie C | 204 | 56 | 27.5% | 14 | 14 |
| Coppa Italia | 24 | 2 | 8.3% | 1 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 7 |
| 2025 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 17 |
| 2024 | 37 | 12 | 32.4% | 8 |
| 2023 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 9 |
| 2022 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 6 |
| 2021 | 40 | 16 | 40.0% | 6 |
| 2020 | 28 | 8 | 28.6% | 8 |
| 2019 | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 22 | 9 | 40.9% | 3 |
| 2017 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 8 |
| 2016 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 7 |
| 2015 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 12 |
| 2014 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 7 |
| 2013 | 25 | 7 | 28.0% | 9 |
| 2012 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2011 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2009 | 23 | 7 | 30.4% | 4 |
| 2008 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 4 |
| 2007 | 20 | 5 | 25.0% | 9 |
| 2006 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 6 |
| 2005 | 21 | 7 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2004 | 26 | 6 | 23.1% | 16 |
| 2003 | 20 | 7 | 35.0% | 7 |
Over 412 matches (Jan 2015 – Nov 2026), US Avellino drew 116 where the draw model expected 126.9 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.2 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 127.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.