Atlético Mineiro
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 2 Oct 2026.
Over 517 matches (May 2015 – Sep 2026), Atlético Mineiro drew 135 where the draw model expected 142.8 from those particular fixtures — about 8 fewer, or 0.8 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 139.1 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 09 Aug 2020 → 11 Oct 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 24 Jun 2021 → 14 Aug 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 26 Feb 2026 → 03 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 12 | 09 Oct 2021 → 20 Nov 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 12 Jul 2017 → 27 Aug 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 04 Aug 2019 → 02 Oct 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 17 Sep 2023 → 02 Nov 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 20 Jun 2015 → 30 Jul 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 10 Jun 2012 → 27 Jul 2012 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 01 Jun 2025 → 06 Aug 2025 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 558 | 150 | 26.9% | 0 | 14 |
| Copa do Brasil | 80 | 20 | 25.0% | 1 | 14 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| FIFA Club World Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Supercopa do Brasil | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 | 0 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 12 |
| 2025 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 8 |
| 2024 | 48 | 17 | 35.4% | 4 |
| 2023 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 9 |
| 2022 | 43 | 14 | 32.6% | 5 |
| 2021 | 59 | 10 | 17.0% | 13 |
| 2020 | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 14 |
| 2019 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 10 |
| 2018 | 48 | 12 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2017 | 42 | 12 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2016 | 45 | 15 | 33.3% | 8 |
| 2015 | 40 | 7 | 17.5% | 9 |
| 2014 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 6 |
| 2013 | 42 | 13 | 31.0% | 8 |
| 2012 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 9 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 21:30 |
Grêmio
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Sat, 07 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 07 Nov 21:00 |
Atlético Mineiro
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.3% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.