What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | 30 Jul 2016 → 06 Nov 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 15 | 10 Sep 2014 → 16 Nov 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 14 | 25 Oct 2020 → 06 Jan 2021 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 12 Apr 2023 → 03 Jun 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 12 | 12 Dec 2021 → 29 May 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 12 | 19 Aug 2018 → 14 Oct 2018 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 26 Jun 2024 → 07 Aug 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 29 Sep 2024 → 20 Nov 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 20 Jul 2019 → 04 Sep 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 28 Apr 2015 → 14 Jun 2015 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Serie A | 489 | 120 | 24.5% | 1 | 19 |
| Copa do Brasil | 87 | 27 | 31.0% | 2 | 7 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 1 | 1 |
| Supercopa do Brasil | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 38 | 11 | 29.0% | 8 |
| 2025 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 2024 | 44 | 9 | 20.5% | 11 |
| 2023 | 44 | 14 | 31.8% | 13 |
| 2022 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 10 |
| 2021 | 59 | 15 | 25.4% | 7 |
| 2020 | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 13 |
| 2019 | 46 | 13 | 28.3% | 9 |
| 2018 | 46 | 14 | 30.4% | 12 |
| 2017 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 7 |
| 2016 | 46 | 10 | 21.7% | 20 |
| 2015 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 9 |
| 2014 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 15 |
| 2013 | 49 | 15 | 30.6% | 6 |
Over 491 matches (Apr 2015 – Oct 2026), Athletico Paranaense drew 124 where the draw model expected 141.4 from those particular fixtures — about 17 fewer, or 1.7 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 3 times running. A flat league average would have expected 132.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.