Athletic Bilbao
What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 5 Oct 2026.
Over 579 matches (Jan 2015 – Sep 2026), Athletic Bilbao drew 155 where the draw model expected 149.0 from those particular fixtures — about 6 more, or 0.6 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 147.3 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18 | 20 Jun 2020 → 23 Nov 2020 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 17 | 29 Jan 2017 → 07 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 15 | 21 Sep 2010 → 18 Dec 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 14 | 09 May 2009 → 26 Sep 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 14 | 09 Apr 1995 → 16 Sep 1995 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 13 | 14 May 2016 → 23 Oct 2016 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 11 | 04 Mar 2026 → 13 May 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 11 | 08 May 2025 → 20 Sep 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 14 Jan 2023 → 01 Mar 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 10 | 20 Nov 2016 → 05 Jan 2017 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Liga | 1268 | 356 | 28.1% | 0 | 18 |
| UEFA Europa League | 150 | 28 | 18.7% | 3 | 9 |
| Copa del Rey | 106 | 30 | 28.3% | 3 | 6 |
| UEFA Champions League | 34 | 9 | 26.5% | 2 | 5 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 28 | 4 | 14.3% | 0 | 9 |
| Supercopa de España | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 1 | 2 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 3 | 3 |
| Club Friendlies | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33 | 7 | 21.2% | 11 |
| 2025 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 11 |
| 2024 | 51 | 15 | 29.4% | 6 |
| 2023 | 48 | 11 | 22.9% | 10 |
| 2022 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 6 |
| 2021 | 51 | 23 | 45.1% | 4 |
| 2020 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 18 |
| 2019 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 7 |
| 2018 | 42 | 17 | 40.5% | 6 |
| 2017 | 55 | 14 | 25.5% | 17 |
| 2016 | 55 | 8 | 14.5% | 13 |
| 2015 | 62 | 15 | 24.2% | 7 |
| 2014 | 51 | 14 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2013 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 9 |
| 2012 | 65 | 16 | 24.6% | 8 |
| 2011 | 50 | 13 | 26.0% | 9 |
| 2010 | 42 | 9 | 21.4% | 15 |
| 2009 | 59 | 12 | 20.3% | 14 |
| 2008 | 44 | 11 | 25.0% | 6 |
| 2007 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 6 |
| 2006 | 39 | 13 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2005 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 10 |
| 2004 | 46 | 11 | 23.9% | 9 |
| 2003 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 7 |
| 2002 | 35 | 7 | 20.0% | 8 |
| 2001 | 40 | 12 | 30.0% | 7 |
| 2000 | 37 | 11 | 29.7% | 6 |
| 1999 | 40 | 15 | 37.5% | 7 |
| 1998 | 43 | 12 | 27.9% | 5 |
| 1997 | 47 | 18 | 38.3% | 8 |
| 1996 | 41 | 16 | 39.0% | 5 |
| 1995 | 41 | 13 | 31.7% | 14 |
| 1994 | 43 | 10 | 23.3% | 8 |
| 1993 | 16 | 3 | 18.8% | 6 |
| 1988 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1986 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1985 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1984 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1983 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1982 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 5 |
| 1976 | 12 | 4 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1973 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1971 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1970 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1969 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1968 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 1966 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1964 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 1957 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1956 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, 10 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 10 Oct 12:00 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.3% |
|
| Sat, 17 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 17 Oct 19:00 |
Valencia CF
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.8% |
|
| Wed, 21 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 21 Oct 18:00 |
Levante UD
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 28.1% |
|
| Sun, 25 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 25 Oct 13:00 |
Athletic Bilbao
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.7% |
|
| Sun, 01 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 01 Nov 20:00 |
Athletic Bilbao
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 27.3% |
|
| Sun, 08 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 08 Nov 20:00 |
CA Osasuna
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 29.0% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.