What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 4 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19 | 22 Jul 2023 → 16 Dec 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 19 | 18 Mar 2006 → 21 Oct 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 18 | 06 Apr 2013 → 02 Nov 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 18 | 09 Nov 2002 → 18 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 17 | 04 Oct 2008 → 21 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 17 | 28 Apr 2001 → 10 Nov 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 16 | 16 Nov 2024 → 08 Mar 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 14 | 27 Feb 2024 → 20 Jul 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 14 | 24 Nov 2007 → 01 Mar 2008 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 14 | 15 Oct 2005 → 28 Jan 2006 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottish League One | 468 | 119 | 25.4% | 0 | 16 |
| Scottish League Two | 288 | 61 | 21.2% | 0 | 19 |
| Scottish Championship | 282 | 77 | 27.3% | 8 | 17 |
| Scottish League Cup | 66 | 12 | 18.2% | 4 | 5 |
| Scottish Cup | 50 | 8 | 16.0% | 0 | 4 |
| Club Friendlies | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 | 2 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 2025 | 42 | 10 | 23.8% | 9 |
| 2024 | 43 | 8 | 18.6% | 14 |
| 2023 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 19 |
| 2022 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 8 |
| 2021 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 5 |
| 2020 | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 6 |
| 2019 | 42 | 11 | 26.2% | 9 |
| 2018 | 44 | 10 | 22.7% | 10 |
| 2017 | 41 | 10 | 24.4% | 9 |
| 2016 | 43 | 11 | 25.6% | 9 |
| 2015 | 40 | 11 | 27.5% | 8 |
| 2014 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 12 |
| 2013 | 39 | 4 | 10.3% | 18 |
| 2012 | 44 | 15 | 34.1% | 5 |
| 2011 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 11 |
| 2010 | 36 | 9 | 25.0% | 7 |
| 2009 | 37 | 9 | 24.3% | 5 |
| 2008 | 41 | 7 | 17.1% | 12 |
| 2007 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 12 |
| 2006 | 41 | 5 | 12.2% | 19 |
| 2005 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 9 |
| 2004 | 40 | 9 | 22.5% | 10 |
| 2003 | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 10 |
| 2002 | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 8 |
| 2001 | 38 | 6 | 15.8% | 17 |
| 2000 | 36 | 15 | 41.7% | 5 |
| 1999 | 36 | 11 | 30.6% | 7 |
| 1998 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 8 |
| 1997 | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 7 |
Over 482 matches (Jan 2015 – Oct 2026), Arbroath drew 127 where the draw model expected 117.5 from those particular fixtures — about 9 more, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 113.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.