What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 26 Aug 2026 → 30 Oct 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 6 | 29 Mar 2014 → 01 May 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 5 | 20 Jan 2017 → 18 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 5 | 04 May 2013 → 28 May 2013 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 21 Mar 1984 → 06 May 1984 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 14 Apr 1983 → 13 May 1983 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 5 | 09 May 1979 → 08 Jun 1979 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 5 | 05 May 1977 → 27 May 1977 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 5 | 06 May 1976 → 04 Jun 1976 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 4 | 05 Nov 2019 → 18 Jan 2020 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| King's Cup | 104 | 18 | 17.3% | 0 | 6 |
| Saudi Pro League | 8 | 0 | 0.0% | 8 | 8 |
| FIFA Intercontinental Cup | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 1 | 10.0% | 9 |
| 2025 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 2024 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2023 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2022 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2020 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2019 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 2018 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 2017 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2016 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 3 |
| 2015 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2014 | 6 | 0 | 0.0% | 6 |
| 2013 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2012 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 2011 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 2010 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2009 | 2 | 2 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2008 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1989 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1988 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1987 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 1986 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| 1984 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1983 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1982 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1981 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1980 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1979 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1978 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1976 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
Over 114 matches (May 1976 – Oct 2026), Al-Ahli drew 18 where the draw model expected 22.4 from those particular fixtures — about 4 fewer, or 1.0 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 22.4 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.