What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 12 May 2003 → 31 Oct 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 08 Mar 2011 → 30 Jul 2011 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 13 | 31 Jan 2010 → 23 Apr 2010 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 13 | 26 Nov 2004 → 03 Apr 2005 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 29 Jan 2006 → 09 Apr 2006 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 11 | 20 May 2001 → 19 Oct 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 10 | 01 Dec 2002 → 07 Mar 2003 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 10 | 23 Mar 2002 → 25 Aug 2002 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 10 | 25 Nov 2000 → 04 Mar 2001 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 8 | 21 Nov 2008 → 22 Feb 2009 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2. Bundesliga | 272 | 62 | 22.8% | 1 | 14 |
| 3. Liga | 38 | 9 | 23.7% | 12 | 12 |
| DFB-Pokal | 7 | 3 | 42.9% | 1 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 22 | 2 | 9.1% | 13 |
| 2010 | 35 | 9 | 25.7% | 13 |
| 2009 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 2008 | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 5 |
| 2007 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2006 | 18 | 2 | 11.1% | 11 |
| 2005 | 35 | 8 | 22.9% | 10 |
| 2004 | 33 | 13 | 39.4% | 4 |
| 2003 | 34 | 5 | 14.7% | 14 |
| 2002 | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 10 |
| 2001 | 34 | 7 | 20.6% | 11 |
| 2000 | 18 | 6 | 33.3% | 5 |
Over 317 matches (Aug 2000 – Jul 2011), Rot Weiss Ahlen drew 74 where the draw model expected 84.9 from those particular fixtures — about 11 fewer, or 1.4 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 2 times running. A flat league average would have expected 87.0 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.