What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Oct 2026.
Over 441 matches (Jul 2015 – Oct 2026), AGF drew 128 where the draw model expected 111.6 from those particular fixtures — about 16 more, or 1.8 standard errors, a gap most teams show over a stretch this long.
As unusual as a coin landing the same way 4 times running. A flat league average would have expected 109.9 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 26 Feb 2014 → 20 Aug 2014 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 13 | 09 Nov 2025 → 12 Feb 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 12 | 29 Aug 2017 → 27 Nov 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 11 | 07 Aug 2022 → 12 Oct 2022 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 11 | 28 Oct 2018 → 24 Feb 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 10 | 08 Aug 2025 → 09 Oct 2025 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 9 | 29 Sep 2019 → 01 Dec 2019 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 9 | 15 Mar 2017 → 07 May 2017 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 9 | 02 Sep 2015 → 27 Oct 2015 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 9 | 29 Jul 2012 → 17 Sep 2012 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Superliga | 447 | 130 | 29.1% | 0 | 14 |
| Danish Cup | 75 | 14 | 18.7% | 0 | 8 |
| UEFA Champions League | 18 | 4 | 22.2% | 1 | 6 |
| UEFA Europa League | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 2 | 3 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 0 | 5 |
| Club Friendlies | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 4 | 5 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34 | 13 | 38.2% | 6 |
| 2025 | 40 | 8 | 20.0% | 10 |
| 2024 | 38 | 12 | 31.6% | 8 |
| 2023 | 36 | 12 | 33.3% | 3 |
| 2022 | 35 | 10 | 28.6% | 11 |
| 2021 | 43 | 15 | 34.9% | 7 |
| 2020 | 34 | 8 | 23.5% | 7 |
| 2019 | 39 | 8 | 20.5% | 9 |
| 2018 | 41 | 14 | 34.2% | 8 |
| 2017 | 38 | 8 | 21.1% | 12 |
| 2016 | 42 | 14 | 33.3% | 5 |
| 2015 | 21 | 6 | 28.6% | 9 |
| 2014 | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 16 |
| 2013 | 32 | 6 | 18.8% | 8 |
| 2012 | 22 | 6 | 27.3% | 9 |
| 2010 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2009 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2008 | 3 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1997 | 6 | 4 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1996 | 3 | 2 | 66.7% | 1 |
| 1992 | 5 | 2 | 40.0% | 2 |
| 1990 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1989 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 4 |
| 1987 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1985 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1984 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1979 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1965 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1964 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1963 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1961 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 1960 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 1959 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1957 | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 3 |
| 1956 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1955 | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 2 |
| Date | Home | · | Away | 1 / X / 2 | Draw · logistic | Tournament |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, 15 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 15 Oct 16:45 |
KAA Gent
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 25.2% |
|
| Thu, 22 Oct 2026 | ||||||
| 22 Oct 19:00 |
AGF
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 14.2% |
|
| Thu, 05 Nov 2026 | ||||||
| 05 Nov 17:45 |
AGF
|
vs |
|
– / – / – | 24.4% |
|
Draw · logistic is the chance of a draw from the logistic draw model: five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at the Elo gap, the expected goals and the competition's own draw rate — fitted on every match played so far and recalibrated, then applied to fixtures not yet played. A dash means the model has not rated that fixture. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.