What this team's results have earned: every match in the database is replayed in date order, both sides start at 1500 and the winner takes points from the loser. The rating is the one it held after its last rated match, and the rank counts every club ever rated, sides that no longer play included. A measure of strength, not a forecast of the next result. Computed 3 Nov 2026.
| # | Run | From → To | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 18 Sep 2022 → 27 Jan 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 2 | 10 | 21 May 2023 → 15 Sep 2023 | ▸ matches |
| 3 | 10 | 15 Jul 1973 → 04 Nov 1973 | ▸ matches |
| 4 | 6 | 09 Dec 2023 → 23 Feb 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 5 | 5 | 04 Aug 2026 → 30 Aug 2026 | ▸ matches |
| 6 | 5 | 19 Aug 1966 → 04 Oct 1966 | ▸ matches |
| 7 | 4 | 27 Apr 2024 → 19 May 2024 | ▸ matches |
| 8 | 4 | 03 Mar 1982 → 29 Jul 1982 | ▸ matches |
| 9 | 4 | 19 Aug 1981 → 30 Sep 1981 | ▸ matches |
| 10 | 3 | 21 Apr 2023 → 05 May 2023 | ▸ matches |
| Competition | P | D | Draw% | N | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regionalliga Nordost | 84 | 24 | 28.6% | 1 | 11 |
| UEFA Europa League | 32 | 4 | 12.5% | 1 | 10 |
| UEFA Cup Winners' Cup | 25 | 9 | 36.0% | 1 | 4 |
| Inter-Cities Fairs Cup | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 2 | 5 |
| DFB-Pokal | 3 | 1 | 33.3% | 0 | 1 |
| Year | P | D | Draw% | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16 | 7 | 43.8% | 5 |
| 2025 | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 0 |
| 2024 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 5 |
| 2023 | 36 | 10 | 27.8% | 10 |
| 2022 | 15 | 2 | 13.3% | 10 |
| 2021 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 1988 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1987 | 7 | 2 | 28.6% | 3 |
| 1986 | 4 | 3 | 75.0% | 1 |
| 1985 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 3 |
| 1984 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1983 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 3 |
| 1982 | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 1981 | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4 |
| 1978 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1977 | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1976 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1973 | 10 | 0 | 0.0% | 10 |
| 1968 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1967 | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 2 |
| 1966 | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 5 |
| 1965 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
| 1964 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 1963 | 2 | 1 | 50.0% | 1 |
Over 164 matches (Jul 1963 – Oct 2026), 1. FC Lokomotive Leipzig drew 42 where the draw model expected 38.2 from those particular fixtures — about 4 more, or 0.7 standard errors, which is what the model expected, near enough.
A flat league average would have expected 37.6 instead — "more draws than the league" and "more draws than these fixtures deserved" are different claims. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.