▦ FDB4
No-draw streak ‹ back to records
ENG · Club

Lewes

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
32
non-draws in a row
07 Oct 2008 → 21 Apr 2009
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 7.9 across these 32 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 7.8 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 8,560 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 26.73 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.04× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
04 Oct 2008 Grays Athletic 0–0 Lewes D ENG · National League
☆ 07 Oct 2008 Cambridge United 1–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 11 Oct 2008 Lewes 3–2 Forest Green Rovers H ENG · National League
☆ 18 Oct 2008 Lewes 2–3 Northwich Victoria A ENG · National League
☆ 01 Nov 2008 Wrexham 2–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 15 Nov 2008 Lewes 0–1 Burton Albion A ENG · National League
☆ 18 Nov 2008 Torquay United 4–1 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 22 Nov 2008 Lewes 2–0 Grays Athletic H ENG · National League
☆ 06 Dec 2008 Lewes 0–2 Stevenage A ENG · National League
☆ 09 Dec 2008 Salisbury City 1–2 Lewes A ENG · National League
☆ 20 Dec 2008 Lewes 0–2 Woking A ENG · National League
☆ 26 Dec 2008 Eastbourne Borough 1–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 01 Jan 2009 Lewes 0–2 Eastbourne Borough A ENG · National League
☆ 03 Jan 2009 Stevenage 3–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 17 Jan 2009 York City 3–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 24 Jan 2009 Lewes 0–1 Mansfield Town A ENG · National League
☆ 27 Jan 2009 Lewes 0–2 Torquay United A ENG · National League
☆ 01 Feb 2009 Oxford United 2–1 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 07 Feb 2009 Lewes 0–2 Wrexham A ENG · National League
☆ 21 Feb 2009 Lewes 0–2 Cambridge United A ENG · National League
☆ 24 Feb 2009 Crawley Town 5–1 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 28 Feb 2009 Lewes 0–3 Histon A ENG · National League
☆ 07 Mar 2009 Mansfield Town 1–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 10 Mar 2009 Rushden & Diamonds 2–1 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 14 Mar 2009 Lewes 0–1 Kidderminster Harriers A ENG · National League
☆ 17 Mar 2009 Kettering Town 1–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 21 Mar 2009 Barrow 2–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 28 Mar 2009 Forest Green Rovers 4–1 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 04 Apr 2009 Lewes 2–0 Altrincham H ENG · National League
☆ 11 Apr 2009 Lewes 1–0 Weymouth H ENG · National League
☆ 13 Apr 2009 Ebbsfleet United 2–1 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 18 Apr 2009 Northwich Victoria 3–0 Lewes H ENG · National League
☆ 21 Apr 2009 Lewes 1–2 Kettering Town A ENG · National League
the draw that ended it
26 Apr 2009 Lewes 1–1 York City D ENG · National League

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