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No-draw streak ‹ back to records
ARG · National Team

Argentina

A run of consecutive matches without a draw.
33
non-draws in a row
11 Oct 2008 → 16 Mar 2011
Was this a feat, or a coincidence? how this is worked out ›
Draws the model expected 7.5 across these 33 fixtures, one chance each
A flat league rate expected 8.0 the same question, asked without knowing the fixtures
Chance of no draw at all 1 in 5,160 for this run alone — and that overstates it
Runs this long, expected anywhere 20.80 across every run in the database

Each match gets its own draw chance from the five-feature logistic draw model, recalibrated by its isotonic map, and the run's own probability is those chances multiplied — the Poisson-binomial reading. A binomial at the run's average chance would have called it 1.08× more likely, which is the direction that error always goes. The last tile is the figure to quote: a run picked out because it is long is not a coincidence you get to be surprised by — why that is, and what the same question says about every other record here. These matches were part of the model's own training set, so its chances were fitted already knowing the results.

Matches in this run
Date Home Score Away R Tournament
the draw before the run
10 Sep 2008 Peru 1–1 Argentina D ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 11 Oct 2008 Argentina 2–1 Uruguay H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 15 Oct 2008 Chile 1–0 Argentina H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 19 Nov 2008 Scotland 0–1 Argentina A ITL · Friendly
☆ 11 Feb 2009 France 0–2 Argentina A ITL · Friendly
☆ 28 Mar 2009 Argentina 4–0 Venezuela H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 01 Apr 2009 Bolivia 6–1 Argentina H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 20 May 2009 Argentina 3–1 Panama H ITL · Friendly
☆ 06 Jun 2009 Argentina 1–0 Colombia H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 10 Jun 2009 Ecuador 2–0 Argentina H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 12 Aug 2009 Russia 2–3 Argentina A ITL · Friendly
☆ 05 Sep 2009 Argentina 1–3 Brazil A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 09 Sep 2009 Paraguay 1–0 Argentina H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 30 Sep 2009 Argentina 2–0 Ghana H ITL · Friendly
☆ 10 Oct 2009 Argentina 2–1 Peru H ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 14 Oct 2009 Uruguay 0–1 Argentina A ITL · FIFA World Cup qualification
☆ 14 Nov 2009 Spain 2–1 Argentina H ITL · Friendly
☆ 22 Dec 2009 Catalonia 4–2 Argentina H ITL · Friendly
☆ 26 Jan 2010 Argentina 3–2 Costa Rica H ITL · Friendly
☆ 10 Feb 2010 Argentina 2–1 Jamaica H ITL · Friendly
☆ 03 Mar 2010 Germany 0–1 Argentina A ITL · Friendly
☆ 05 May 2010 Argentina 4–0 Haiti H ITL · Friendly
☆ 24 May 2010 Argentina 5–0 Canada H ITL · Friendly
☆ 12 Jun 2010 Argentina 1–0 Nigeria H ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 17 Jun 2010 Argentina 4–1 South Korea H ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 22 Jun 2010 Greece 0–2 Argentina A ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 27 Jun 2010 Argentina 3–1 Mexico H ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 03 Jul 2010 Argentina 0–4 Germany A ITL · FIFA World Cup
☆ 11 Aug 2010 Republic of Ireland 0–1 Argentina A ITL · Friendly
☆ 07 Sep 2010 Argentina 4–1 Spain H ITL · Friendly
☆ 08 Oct 2010 Japan 1–0 Argentina H ITL · Friendly
☆ 17 Nov 2010 Argentina 1–0 Brazil H ITL · Friendly
☆ 09 Feb 2011 Argentina 2–1 Portugal H ITL · Friendly
☆ 16 Mar 2011 Argentina 4–1 Venezuela H ITL · Friendly
the draw that ended it
26 Mar 2011 United States 1–1 Argentina D ITL · Friendly

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