Who is overdue a draw?

Ranks teams by a draw-likelihood score blending recent draw rate (p50 / p100), the current no-draw streak N, how stretched it is versus the team's own record (N / Max), and the resulting "draw debt" E = p_weighted × N. A team sitting at its record max is more overdue than one with plenty of headroom. The score is relative to the teams in view.

“Overdue” describes the run, not evidence that a draw is coming: over a million team-matches, neither N, E nor the score raises the next match's draw chance.

Candidates100

Top score 0.218 Manchester United

Global draws24.3%133,342 drawn

No-draw N 22 Hartlepool United

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Draw predictor ranking 100 rows

E = draw debt (p_weighted × N) N = current no-draw streak Max = record no-draw streak Avg = typical long run (avg of top 10) p100 = draw rate, last 100 Draw% = all-time draw rate Score = draw likelihood (0–1), ranked vs all teams

Swipe sideways for all metrics; scroll down for more teams.

#	Team	E	N	Max	Avg	p100	Draw%	Score▾
01	ENGHartlepool United	5.10	22	22	14.3	28%	26.0%	0.735
02	POLJagiellonia Białystok	4.71	19	19	12.5	28%	26.8%	0.711
03	NORIK Start	4.18	22	22	15.1	21%	21.6%	0.677
04	SCOKelty Hearts	4.06	16	16	8.8	25%	24.6%	0.670
05	SRBSerbia	3.66	15	15	10.1	26%	25.3%	0.646
06	AUTSK Rapid Wien	4.00	22	26	15.4	21%	20.5%	0.643
07	GERHamburger SV	3.90	16	20	14.9	26%	25.7%	0.631
08	CROCroatia	3.30	15	15	9.4	22%	25.7%	0.624
09	POLBruk-Bet Termalica Nieciecza	3.14	12	12	7.7	25%	25.0%	0.616
10	ITAVenezia	2.94	13	13	9.8	27%	30.2%	0.606
11	ALBAlbania	3.01	16	16	11.0	18%	20.8%	0.601
12	BELRAAL La Louvière	2.45	7	7	3.5	34%	34.4%	0.595
13	ITAUS Lecce	2.91	16	17	11.9	21%	28.5%	0.594
14	FRAAS Nancy-Lorraine	3.15	11	14	10.6	29%	30.0%	0.591
15	IRLDrogheda United	3.50	11	17	11.1	33%	28.3%	0.590
16	FRAOlympique de Marseille	2.64	20	20	13.6	14%	25.5%	0.588
17	ARGClub Atlético Aldosivi	2.74	12	12	10.0	22%	23.2%	0.587
18	ENGScunthorpe United	3.18	15	19	15.1	22%	27.2%	0.585
19	CHNQingdao Hainiu	2.73	13	13	7.1	23%	22.1%	0.585
20	GRNGrenada	2.72	14	14	7.6	19%	21.2%	0.583
21	JPNUrawa Red Diamonds	2.59	12	12	9.7	24%	24.8%	0.579
22	POLRaków Częstochowa	2.97	14	17	11.4	22%	22.7%	0.574
23	GERVSG Altglienicke	2.47	10	10	5.8	24%	23.9%	0.573
24	KSAAl-Hilal	2.39	9	9	4.9	27%	25.0%	0.571
25	BELFCV Dender EH	2.82	10	12	7.0	27%	22.6%	0.571
26	PORPorto	2.73	21	24	18.9	15%	17.6%	0.569
27	RUSOrenburg	2.83	12	15	8.9	26%	24.3%	0.565
28	TUREyüpspor	2.38	12	12	5.8	21%	22.6%	0.563
29	JPNMito HollyHock	2.10	7	7	2.6	30%	30.0%	0.563
30	ESPCD Eldense	2.20	9	9	5.1	26%	26.7%	0.559
31	TURÇorum	2.18	9	9	4.0	24%	24.2%	0.555
32	POLGKS Katowice	2.83	13	17	9.0	23%	20.9%	0.555
33	ENGNorwich City	2.52	17	20	13.9	18%	24.5%	0.553
34	UKRKudrivka	2.17	10	10	4.8	22%	21.6%	0.550
35	GREPanathinaikos	3.06	15	21	16.4	22%	20.9%	0.545
36	GERWaldhof Mannheim	2.57	12	17	11.6	25%	31.3%	0.540
37	FRARed Star	2.54	9	13	7.6	27%	29.4%	0.540
38	BRACruzeiro	2.86	10	14	11.3	29%	26.5%	0.537
39	FRARodez AF	2.67	8	15	7.8	33%	33.7%	0.534
40	ARGArgentina	2.65	21	33	15.1	17%	23.8%	0.534
41	USAUnited States	2.24	16	19	14.5	18%	20.2%	0.530
42	ROUCorvinul Hunedoara	1.72	7	7	3.2	26%	26.3%	0.530
43	GERRSV Eintracht 1949	1.94	11	11	6.5	18%	17.7%	0.529
44	UKRNK Veres Rivne	2.09	7	9	6.7	31%	28.5%	0.527
45	BELSporting Charleroi	2.52	12	15	13.2	23%	24.7%	0.526
46	ENGSolihull Moors	2.12	10	12	9.8	22%	25.5%	0.525
47	ROUUTA Arad	2.21	8	11	7.7	30%	26.8%	0.522
48	TURTurkey	2.07	11	13	10.3	22%	23.2%	0.520
49	ENGFylde	1.65	11	11	8.4	17%	24.3%	0.517
50	POLŚląsk Wrocław	2.29	8	11	8.7	29%	30.9%	0.516
51	SWEVästerås SK	1.72	10	10	6.0	18%	16.2%	0.513
52	AUTAustria Lustenau	1.96	9	11	6.4	23%	21.5%	0.510
53	BELClub Brugge KV	2.32	20	29	20.8	14%	19.1%	0.509
54	ARGEstudiantes de Río Cuarto	1.76	8	9	4.8	22%	22.0%	0.508
55	SUIServette	2.57	9	14	10.1	29%	24.2%	0.508
56	KSAAl Kholood	1.41	6	6	6.0	24%	23.5%	0.507
57	PORAcadémico de Viseu	1.52	8	8	6.0	19%	19.1%	0.505
58	PORCD Nacional	2.20	10	13	10.9	22%	24.6%	0.504
59	TURTrabzonspor	2.81	13	19	16.6	24%	23.4%	0.501
60	ARGClub Atlético Huracán	2.52	7	14	8.0	36%	33.9%	0.499
61	GERBFC Preussen	0.94	3	3	2.7	31%	31.3%	0.498
62	TURSamsunspor	2.58	10	16	11.6	27%	24.0%	0.497
63	ENGBournemouth	3.58	10	22	15.8	33%	26.3%	0.497
64	GREKifisia	1.81	5	9	4.9	35%	34.5%	0.493
65	KSAAl-Ahli	1.42	9	9	5.4	17%	15.8%	0.493
66	VGBBritish Virgin Islands	1.36	7	7	5.1	19%	17.3%	0.493
67	SUINeuchâtel Xamax	1.73	8	10	7.5	24%	21.2%	0.492
68	JPNFagiano Okayama	1.81	9	12	4.3	20%	20.3%	0.488
69	ARMVan	1.80	10	13	9.5	18%	19.4%	0.488
70	ESPReal Sociedad B	1.85	8	12	6.3	24%	24.0%	0.484
71	KSAAl Fateh	1.20	7	7	3.3	17%	16.7%	0.480
72	FRAAnnecy	1.47	8	10	7.0	20%	27.1%	0.479
73	USAD.C. United	2.74	8	16	10.5	33%	26.1%	0.479
74	ENGCoventry City	2.39	13	21	15.4	20%	25.9%	0.479
75	ITACarrarese Calcio	2.35	8	15	9.4	29%	27.6%	0.475
76	CIVIvory Coast	2.39	13	30	13.6	20%	25.2%	0.472
77	ENGWatford	2.77	11	22	14.4	26%	25.5%	0.471
78	PURPuerto Rico	1.09	7	7	6.0	18%	15.6%	0.470
79	MYAMyanmar	1.68	10	14	10.0	16%	17.6%	0.469
80	Bonaire	1.13	9	9	3.5	13%	12.5%	0.468
81	KSAAl Khaleej	0.86	4	4	2.4	21%	21.4%	0.468
82	NORNorway	1.92	10	14	11.3	20%	22.2%	0.467
83	POLWieczysta Kraków	1.05	7	7	4.7	15%	15.0%	0.466
84	ARUAruba	0.99	8	8	5.3	14%	19.9%	0.466
85	GERTSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	1.38	7	9	5.7	22%	22.1%	0.465
86	USANew England Revolution	1.99	12	20	12.9	17%	23.9%	0.465
87	ENGTamworth	2.12	9	16	10.4	26%	26.7%	0.461
88	ITACarpi	1.63	6	9	6.8	28%	29.3%	0.457
89	GREPanetolikos	2.09	9	15	10.8	24%	25.2%	0.456
90	CHIChile	2.38	10	21	11.9	25%	21.4%	0.454
91	FRAPau FC	1.71	7	12	7.6	26%	27.4%	0.452
92	NORÅsane Fotball	1.76	8	12	9.2	22%	24.0%	0.451
93	JPNAvispa Fukuoka	1.80	6	10	7.2	30%	28.1%	0.450
94	KSAAl Riyadh	0.60	3	3	2.4	20%	20.0%	0.448
95	SUIYverdon-Sport	1.42	6	10	5.5	22%	18.4%	0.442
96	ENGBoreham Wood	1.62	9	18	9.2	22%	30.3%	0.442
97	NEDAlmere City	1.33	5	9	4.5	27%	25.9%	0.442
98	GERTasmania Berlin	0.75	6	6	4.7	13%	12.5%	0.441
99	KSAAl-Faisaly	0.80	3	4	2.6	27%	26.5%	0.440
100	SUIThun	1.52	11	16	12.2	15%	22.4%	0.439

Prediction detail Manchester United

ENG · Manchester United

0.218

draw-likelihood score · rank #688

draw debt E

1.28

4 since last draw

Current league place

#17 / 20 · ENG · Premier League · 2026/27

Previous season: #3 / 20 · ENG · Premier League · 2025/26

As of this morning · domestic league only

p100 · last 100 draw rate 32%

p50 · last 50 draw rate 32%

overall draw rate 23%

recent form · draws highlighted

D W W L W W D D D L L W D W L L D D L D L L L W

03 Nov 2026 Manchester United 3–2 AS Roma H ITL UEFA Champions League

31 Oct 2026 Chelsea 2–0 Manchester United A ENG Premier League

25 Oct 2026 Manchester United 0–3 Bournemouth H ENG Premier League

21 Oct 2026 Como 1907 4–1 Manchester United A ITL UEFA Champions League

18 Oct 2026 Leeds United 1–1 Manchester United D ENG Premier League

13 Oct 2026 Atlético Madrid 2–0 Manchester United A ITL UEFA Champions League

10 Oct 2026 Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham Hotspur D ENG Premier League

20 Sep 2026 Fulham 1–1 Manchester United D ENG Premier League

16 Sep 2026 Manchester United 2–3 Brighton & Hove Albion H ENG League Cup

13 Sep 2026 Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City H ENG Premier League

10 Sep 2026 Manchester United 4–0 Sabah FK H ITL UEFA Champions League

06 Sep 2026 Everton 2–2 Manchester United D ENG Premier League

30 Aug 2026 Manchester United 5–2 Ipswich Town H ENG Premier League

22 Aug 2026 Hull City 2–0 Manchester United A ENG Premier League

15 Aug 2026 Manchester United 2–4 AC Milan H ITL Club Friendlies

12 Aug 2026 Manchester United 5–4(ft:1–1) Leeds United D ITL Club Friendlies

08 Aug 2026 Manchester United 1–1 Paris Saint-Germain D ITL Club Friendlies

08 Aug 2026 Paris Saint-Germain 1–1 Manchester United D ITL Club Friendlies

01 Aug 2026 Manchester United 2–1 Atlético Madrid H ITL Club Friendlies

24 Jul 2026 Rosenborg BK 0–5 Manchester United A ITL Club Friendlies

18 Jul 2026 Manchester United 0–1 Wrexham H ITL Club Friendlies

24 May 2026 Brighton & Hove Albion 0–3 Manchester United A ENG Premier League

17 May 2026 Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest H ENG Premier League

09 May 2026 Sunderland 0–0 Manchester United D ENG Premier League

The draw predictor estimates which teams are statistically overdue a draw by blending each side's recent draw rate, its current no-draw streak and how stretched that streak is against the team's own record. The resulting draw-debt score (E = p_weighted × N) ranks candidates relative to the teams in view, so a side sitting at its record maximum reads as more overdue than one with room to spare. Use it to find draw-likely fixtures grounded in historical draw frequency.