Who is overdue a draw?

Ranks teams by a draw-likelihood score blending recent draw rate (p50 / p100), the current no-draw streak N, how stretched it is versus the team's own record (N / Max), and the resulting "draw debt" E = p_weighted × N. A team sitting at its record max is more overdue than one with plenty of headroom. The score is relative to the teams in view.

Candidates100

Top score 0.177 Manchester United

Global draws23.3%126,918 drawn

No-draw N 22 RB Leipzig

Descriptive statistics, not betting advice → read this

Draw predictor ranking 100 rows

E = draw debt (p_weighted × N) N = current no-draw streak Max = record no-draw streak Avg = typical long run (avg of top 10) p100 = draw rate, last 100 Draw% = all-time draw rate Score = draw likelihood (0–1), ranked vs all teams

#	Team	E	N	Max	Avg	p100	Draw%	Score▾
01	Raufoss IL	4.28	21	21	14.8	22%	17.6%	0.684
02	Hartlepool United	3.84	14	16	13.5	31%	25.9%	0.645
03	RB Leipzig	3.39	22	26	15.2	19%	21.2%	0.612
04	LASK	2.95	18	18	12.1	18%	18.6%	0.601
05	IK Start	3.03	15	17	14.9	23%	20.8%	0.589
06	FC Juárez	3.00	12	14	9.9	23%	24.5%	0.588
07	Dumbarton	3.36	15	19	16.1	24%	20.3%	0.582
08	Shanghai Shenhua	2.70	13	14	10.2	20%	25.0%	0.579
09	SCR Altach	3.38	12	19	12.1	31%	23.8%	0.578
10	Kelty Hearts	2.66	10	11	8.3	27%	24.8%	0.577
11	Qingdao Hainiu	2.26	10	10	6.8	23%	22.4%	0.560
12	FCV Dender EH	2.62	10	12	7.0	25%	21.5%	0.559
13	Ospitaletto	1.54	4	4	2.9	38%	38.5%	0.554
14	Montrose	2.94	14	19	15.0	23%	22.1%	0.549
15	Croatia	2.64	11	15	9.0	24%	26.0%	0.548
16	Unión de Santa Fe	2.53	8	12	8.0	30%	34.4%	0.548
17	VPS Vaasa	2.53	11	14	10.3	21%	23.5%	0.546
18	Orenburg	2.60	11	15	8.8	26%	24.4%	0.544
19	Ipswich Town	3.25	14	24	15.6	24%	25.8%	0.543
20	Vaduz	2.02	11	11	5.9	20%	21.1%	0.541
21	Novara	3.47	8	16	10.9	43%	32.0%	0.538
22	SK Rapid Wien	3.14	16	27	17.1	22%	18.5%	0.537
23	San Diego FC	1.96	10	10	5.7	19%	19.4%	0.536
24	FC Rostov	2.41	9	12	9.2	26%	27.2%	0.536
25	Altrincham	2.27	14	18	12.0	19%	24.7%	0.528
26	France	2.41	14	19	13.6	18%	20.7%	0.527
27	FSV 63 Luckenwalde	1.91	9	10	5.8	25%	24.7%	0.524
28	Yverdon-Sport	2.07	9	10	5.9	21%	12.4%	0.523
29	Sion	3.08	11	17	13.9	28%	20.2%	0.518
30	Jagiellonia Białystok	2.86	10	17	11.6	29%	25.3%	0.516
31	RSV Eintracht 1949	1.36	5	5	3.5	27%	27.3%	0.515
32	AS Cittadella	2.44	10	15	11.0	26%	29.7%	0.512
33	M'gladbach	2.64	12	18	14.1	22%	25.5%	0.507
34	Vis Pesaro	2.59	7	14	8.2	35%	33.0%	0.503
35	Degerfors IF	2.50	12	21	10.8	20%	15.8%	0.503
36	Rosenborg BK	3.05	14	24	17.8	23%	20.9%	0.503
37	Corinthians	2.05	9	13	9.3	22%	29.9%	0.502
38	Argentina	2.41	17	33	14.7	17%	23.9%	0.500
39	Polissya Zhytomyr	2.06	10	15	7.4	25%	20.5%	0.494
40	South Korea	2.79	11	21	13.2	25%	25.0%	0.493
41	Columbus Crew	2.76	12	25	14.0	25%	25.8%	0.488
42	Scotland	2.16	12	21	11.6	18%	21.3%	0.486
43	AD Ceuta	1.86	10	14	6.4	18%	17.7%	0.485
44	UD Almería	1.94	11	15	12.2	20%	26.7%	0.481
45	Cruz Azul	2.74	10	23	12.2	27%	28.5%	0.479
46	Andorra	1.65	8	11	7.6	21%	22.3%	0.478
47	Vancouver Whitecaps	2.12	10	18	10.8	22%	25.8%	0.472
48	Kudrivka	1.20	5	6	4.1	24%	23.9%	0.471
49	US Lecce	2.10	10	17	11.3	23%	28.4%	0.470
50	Górnik Zabrze	1.92	10	17	10.4	20%	23.6%	0.468
51	Ilves Tampere	1.88	10	16	10.6	18%	21.2%	0.464
52	Celta Fortuna	0.80	4	4	4.0	20%	20.0%	0.462
53	Al-Hilal	1.13	5	6	4.9	23%	19.6%	0.461
54	Carpi	1.63	6	9	6.8	28%	29.0%	0.459
55	United States	1.94	12	19	14.1	19%	20.3%	0.450
56	FK Bodø/Glimt	1.98	13	21	15.8	16%	19.6%	0.444
57	1. FC Magdeburg II	0.78	7	7	7.0	11%	11.1%	0.442
58	AC Horsens	1.33	7	10	7.6	21%	24.8%	0.439
59	Hamburger SV	2.52	10	20	15.3	26%	25.4%	0.437
60	Norwich City	1.96	11	20	13.5	19%	24.4%	0.435
61	Venezia	1.75	7	11	9.3	27%	30.5%	0.435
62	Olympique de Marseille	1.67	11	17	13.3	16%	25.4%	0.434
63	FK Austria Wien	1.82	12	21	14.4	16%	20.7%	0.430
64	Eyüpspor	1.30	7	12	5.5	19%	18.9%	0.429
65	Würzburger Kickers	1.69	7	14	8.4	23%	27.5%	0.423
66	Minnesota United	1.96	7	13	9.8	28%	24.3%	0.422
67	RAAL La Louvière	1.01	3	6	3.2	33%	33.3%	0.422
68	Urawa Red Diamonds	1.75	7	12	9.3	27%	23.7%	0.420
69	OFI Crete	1.90	13	27	16.2	19%	22.0%	0.417
70	Rodina Moscow	0.38	3	3	2.3	13%	12.5%	0.415
71	Sporting Charleroi	1.89	9	15	13.1	23%	24.3%	0.414
72	Porto	2.05	13	24	18.3	17%	17.7%	0.413
73	Annan Athletic	2.35	11	31	15.4	21%	22.8%	0.411
74	IFK Mariehamn	1.69	7	12	9.6	23%	23.1%	0.410
75	FC København	1.84	10	20	13.2	20%	21.9%	0.406
76	Córdoba CF	1.90	8	16	11.7	25%	27.7%	0.406
77	Al-Ahli	0.62	5	6	5.1	14%	12.7%	0.404
78	Neom SC	0.30	3	3	2.5	10%	10.0%	0.404
79	Çorum	0.34	5	5	2.9	7%	6.9%	0.402
80	Clube do Remo	0.83	4	7	3.3	21%	21.4%	0.402
81	Neuchâtel Xamax	1.33	6	10	7.5	25%	16.9%	0.395
82	Real Betis	2.18	8	18	14.0	28%	27.4%	0.395
83	Almere City	1.07	4	9	4.4	26%	25.2%	0.393
84	Orlando City SC	1.63	8	17	10.7	22%	25.8%	0.392
85	Universitatea Cluj	1.57	8	18	9.9	22%	21.6%	0.391
86	Académico de Viseu	0.64	3	4	3.5	21%	21.4%	0.389
87	Stade Lausanne Ouchy	0.98	6	12	4.7	14%	13.9%	0.388
88	Ravenna	1.63	6	13	8.9	28%	29.3%	0.387
89	BFC Preussen	0.60	2	3	2.5	30%	30.0%	0.386
90	Vasco da Gama	1.65	7	17	9.7	26%	28.5%	0.385
91	Philadelphia Union	1.70	8	18	11.3	22%	25.6%	0.384
92	Ivory Coast	1.84	10	30	13.3	20%	25.3%	0.384
93	Bryne FK	1.85	11	22	17.1	16%	21.3%	0.383
94	Stenhousemuir	2.27	8	23	14.1	26%	23.3%	0.383
95	KFUM Oslo	1.51	5	10	7.7	29%	25.7%	0.381
96	GKS Katowice	1.46	7	17	8.5	20%	18.0%	0.379
97	Raków Częstochowa	1.81	8	21	11.2	23%	20.2%	0.379
98	Atalanta BC	1.78	8	16	13.4	25%	27.9%	0.379
99	Randers FC	1.82	7	16	11.3	26%	25.5%	0.379
100	Kharkiv	0.00	10	10	4.3	0%	0.0%	0.379

Prediction detail Manchester United

ENG · Manchester United

0.177

draw-likelihood score · rank #812

draw debt E

0.88

3 since last draw

p100 · last 100 draw rate 30%

p50 · last 50 draw rate 28%

overall draw rate 22%

recent form · draws highlighted

W L W D L W W W D W W L W W D D D L L W D W L L

16 Sep 2026 Manchester United 2–3 Brighton & Hove Albion H ENG League Cup

13 Sep 2026 Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City H ENG Premier League

10 Sep 2026 Manchester United 4–0 Sabah FK H ITL UEFA Champions League

06 Sep 2026 Everton 2–2 Manchester United D ENG Premier League

30 Aug 2026 Manchester United 5–2 Ipswich Town H ENG Premier League

22 Aug 2026 Hull City 2–0 Manchester United A ENG Premier League

15 Aug 2026 Manchester United 2–4 AC Milan H ITL Club Friendlies

12 Aug 2026 Manchester United 5–4(ft:1–1) Leeds United D ITL Club Friendlies

08 Aug 2026 Manchester United 1–1 Paris Saint-Germain D ITL Club Friendlies

08 Aug 2026 Paris Saint-Germain 1–1 Manchester United D ITL Club Friendlies

01 Aug 2026 Manchester United 2–1 Atlético Madrid H ITL Club Friendlies

24 Jul 2026 Rosenborg BK 0–5 Manchester United A ITL Club Friendlies

18 Jul 2026 Manchester United 0–1 Wrexham H ITL Club Friendlies

24 May 2026 Brighton & Hove Albion 0–3 Manchester United A ENG Premier League

17 May 2026 Manchester United 3–2 Nottingham Forest H ENG Premier League

09 May 2026 Sunderland 0–0 Manchester United D ENG Premier League

03 May 2026 Manchester United 3–2 Liverpool H ENG Premier League

27 Apr 2026 Manchester United 2–1 Brentford H ENG Premier League

18 Apr 2026 Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United A ENG Premier League

13 Apr 2026 Manchester United 1–2 Leeds United H ENG Premier League

20 Mar 2026 Bournemouth 2–2 Manchester United D ENG Premier League

15 Mar 2026 Manchester United 3–1 Aston Villa H ENG Premier League

04 Mar 2026 Newcastle United 2–1 Manchester United A ENG Premier League

01 Mar 2026 Manchester United 2–1 Crystal Palace H ENG Premier League

The draw predictor estimates which teams are statistically overdue a draw by blending each side's recent draw rate, its current no-draw streak and how stretched that streak is against the team's own record. The resulting draw-debt score (E = p_weighted × N) ranks candidates relative to the teams in view, so a side sitting at its record maximum reads as more overdue than one with room to spare. Use it to find draw-likely fixtures grounded in historical draw frequency.