1. FC Union Berlin vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt

Match ☆ 16 May 2009

GER · 3. Liga · 2008

GER 1. FC Union Berlin

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The models what they said before kick-off

Draw predictor · this site's own figures

Figure	1. FC Union Berlin	Rot-Weiß Erfurt	What it means
N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw	2	0	matches in a row without a draw
Max Nthis team's longest run ever	9	15	this team's longest run ever
E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run	0.63	0.00	expected draws over the current run
p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches	28.0%	20.0%	draw rate over its last 50 matches
p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches	34.0%	24.0%	draw rate over its last 100 matches
Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn	31.5%	24.0%	share of every match drawn
Σ Nboth sides' runs added	2		both sides' runs added
Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added	0.63		both sides' draw debt added

These are the figures that held before kick-off: each side's record over every match it had played before 16 May 2009, computed exactly as the predictor computes today's. Draw score and rank are left out: both place a team against the whole field, and the field can only be scored as it stands now.

Team strength · Elo

1. FC Union Berlin 1,634 after: 1,627

Rot-Weiß Erfurt 1,443 after: 1,450

Rating gap +255 home advantage included

Draws at this gap 20.6% 200–299 · 49,681 matches

Goals model · Dixon-Coles

Expected goals 1.74 – 0.53 home – away

Home win 66.5%

Draw 23.2% every level score added up

Away win 10.3%

Both together · the blend

Blended draw chance 22.5% 75% goals model · 25% Elo gap

Goals model said 23.2% form only

This Elo gap said 20.6% strength only

The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.

The regression · the logistic model

Logistic draw chance 24.0% five signals, then recalibrated

95% band 23.5% – 24.4% how unsure the fit is, not the match

The blend says 22.5% the older published reading

A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. Unlike the two readings above it, this one is not leak-free: the model was fitted on all of history, this match included, so for a played match it is a description rather than a prediction.

Both figures are what the models knew before this match — neither ever reads the result it is describing, so they can be compared with what actually happened. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.

League table · 3. Liga · 20082009 Final standings

This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	1. FC Union Berlin Champion	38	22	12	4	59	23	+36	78
2	Fortuna Düsseldorf	38	20	9	9	54	33	+21	69
3	SC Paderborn 07	38	20	8	10	68	38	+30	68
4	SpVgg Unterhaching	38	20	7	11	57	46	+11	67
5	FC Bayern München II	38	14	17	7	54	38	+16	59
6	BSV Kickers Emden	38	16	11	11	45	44	+1	59
7	Kickers Offenbach	38	12	16	10	40	35	+5	52
8	SV Sandhausen	38	12	14	12	58	52	+6	50
9	Dynamo Dresden	38	13	11	14	46	46	0	50
10	Rot-Weiß Erfurt	38	13	11	14	46	48	-2	50
11	VfB Stuttgart II	38	13	10	15	61	50	+11	49
12	Erzgebirge Aue	38	12	12	14	43	43	0	48
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	38	12	9	17	46	51	-5	45
14	Wuppertaler SV	38	11	12	15	36	45	-9	45
15	Jahn Regensburg	38	11	12	15	37	51	-14	45
16	Carl Zeiss Jena	38	10	11	17	41	59	-18	41
17	Werder Bremen II	38	10	10	18	49	58	-9	40
18	Wacker Burghausen	38	10	10	18	40	65	-25	40
19	VfR Aalen	38	8	15	15	38	60	-22	39
20	Stuttgarter Kickers	38	7	11	20	38	71	-33	32

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