| Figure | St Mirren | Falkirk | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 2 | 6 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 19 | 21 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.48 | 1.36 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 22.0% | 22.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 25.0% | 23.0% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 26.3% | 24.0% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.149 | 0.284 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,089 | 456 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 8 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.83 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.434 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 31 |
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 27 |
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 21 |
| 4 | Heart of Midlothian | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 22 | +4 | 20 |
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 17 |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 17 |
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 14 |
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 13 |
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 11 |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 11 |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 9 |