| Figure | CD Leganés | AD Ceuta | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| N — no-draw runmatches in a row without a draw | 1 | 5 | matches in a row without a draw |
| Max Nthis team's longest run ever | 19 | 14 | this team's longest run ever |
| E — draw debtexpected draws over the current run | 0.28 | 0.92 | expected draws over the current run |
| p50 — last 50draw rate over its last 50 matches | 24.0% | 18.0% | draw rate over its last 50 matches |
| p100 — last 100draw rate over its last 100 matches | 31.0% | 18.6% | draw rate over its last 100 matches |
| Draw % — all timeshare of every match drawn | 32.6% | 18.6% | share of every match drawn |
| Draw scorethe predictor ranking score | 0.131 | 0.328 | the predictor ranking score |
| Rankposition in that ranking | 1,249 | 369 | position in that ranking |
| Σ Nboth sides' runs added | 6 | both sides' runs added | |
| Σ Eboth sides' draw debt added | 1.20 | both sides' draw debt added | |
| Σ Scorewhat the Cross predictor orders by | 0.459 | what the Cross predictor orders by | |
The mix is the one that scored best over 544,576 matches — the two are averaged on the log-odds scale, not simply added.
A regression over five signals — the goals model, the draw rate at this Elo gap, the expected goals in the fixture and the competition's own base draw rate — with an isotonic map on top to put the level back where reality is. Held out on a decade it never saw it beat the blend above, which is why both are shown here while one is chosen. This is a real forecast: the fixture had not been played when the model was fitted.
A forecast from every match played so far. Measured over 160,869 priced matches the goals model is slightly worse than the bookmakers (how it is scored), so a high draw chance means an even, low-scoring match rather than value. Descriptive statistics, not betting advice.
This edition’s latest indexed table, not the standings before this match. Both teams are highlighted.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Castellón | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 27 |
| 2 | UD Almería | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 26 |
| 3 | SD Eibar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 23 |
| 4 | Granada CF | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 | RCD Mallorca | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 22 |
| 6 | Sporting de Gijón | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 22 |
| 7 | Girona | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 11 | +11 | 21 |
| 8 | Burgos CF | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 9 | Real Oviedo | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 18 |
| 10 | CE Sabadell | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 17 |
| 11 | UD Las Palmas | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 17 |
| 12 | Córdoba CF | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Real Valladolid | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 15 |
| 14 | CD Tenerife | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 15 |
| 15 | CD Eldense | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 14 |
| 16 | Celta Fortuna | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 23 | -5 | 13 |
| 17 | CD Leganés | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 12 |
| 18 | Real Sociedad B | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 22 | -7 | 11 |
| 19 | Andorra | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 11 |
| 20 | Cádiz CF | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 |
| 21 | Albacete Balompié | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 7 |
| 22 | AD Ceuta | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 27 | -17 | 5 |